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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Kaue Fernandes won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1468
Elo1531
Kaue Fernandes editorial illustration

Mohammad YahyavsKaue FernandesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Saturday, August 3, 2024Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Kaue Fernandes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:45

Model Prediction: Kaue Fernandes wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Kaue Fernandes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kaue Fernandes at -345 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Kaue Fernandes is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Mohammad Yahya has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Kaue Fernandes has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Kaue Fernandes has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Mohammad Yahya (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Mohammad Yahya
Red Corner
VS
Kaue Fernandes
Blue Corner
+250
(29%)
Vegas Odds
-345
(78%)
1468
Elo
1531
32
Age
31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mohammad YahyaL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Trevor Peek · Oct 23
L
KOvs Steven Nguyen · Jul 25
latest
Kaue FernandesW2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Marc Diakiese · Nov 23
W
vs Guram Kutateladze · Mar 25
W
KOvs Harry Hardwick · Sep 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mohammad YahyaMetricKaue Fernandes
3.50
Strikes / min
4.28
6.39
Strikes absorbed / min
1.42
43%
Strike defense
62%
0.50
TDs / 15 min
1.18
42%
Takedown defense
76%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.89Δ 5.75 — meaningful gap+2.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1481 vs 1482Strikes2.4 vs 3.0Takedowns0.8 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Mohammad YahyaKaue Fernandes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501475150015251550← oldermost recent →
Mohammad Yahya(3 fights)Kaue Fernandes(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -62.8|Blue +62.8
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mohammad YahyaTargetKaue Fernandes

By target zone

2
13% acc · 50%
Head
21
48% acc · 57%
0
0% acc
Body
6
67% acc · 16%
2
100% acc · 50%
Leg
10
100% acc · 27%

By position

4
22% acc · 100%
Distance
29
59% acc · 78%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
8
57% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Mohammad Yahya rounds
0
even
1
Kaue Fernandes rounds
Round 1Kaue Fernandes edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
4 / 18
Sig Strikes
37 / 63
22%
Sig Str %
58%
4 / 18
Total Strikes
37 / 63
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:09

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kaue Fernandes37 / 6337 / 630 / 00
1Mohammad Yahya4 / 184 / 180 / 00

Mohammad Yahya

StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3

Kaue Fernandes

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4