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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Modestas Bukauskas won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1538

Elo1473

Modestas BukauskasvsPaul CraigUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Saturday, September 6, 2025Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Modestas Bukauskas won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 5:00

Style matchupModestas Bukauskas: StrikervsPaul Craig: Submission grappler

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Modestas Bukauskas wins(71.5%)

Actual result: Modestas Bukauskas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Modestas Bukauskas at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Modestas Bukauskas has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Modestas Bukauskas (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Modestas Bukauskas

Red Corner

Paul Craig

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1538

Elo

1473

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Modestas Bukauskas

oldest →

SUBvs Marcin Prachnio · Jul 24

KOvs Rafael Cerqueira · Feb 25

vs Ion Cutelaba · May 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jan 26

DECvs Christian Edwards · May 26

latest

Paul CraigL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Andre Muniz · Jul 23

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23

KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24

vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Modestas BukauskasMetricPaul Craig

3.24

Strikes / min

2.50

4.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

50%

Strike defense

43%

0.26

TDs / 15 min

1.43

79%

Takedown defense

35%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.81evenly matched on net striking-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Modestas BukauskasPaul Craig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Modestas Bukauskas(10 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +65.3|Blue -65.3

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Modestas BukauskasTargetPaul Craig

By target zone

60% acc · 82%

Head

0% acc

Body

67% acc · 33%

67% acc · 18%

Leg

57% acc · 67%

By position

59% acc · 45%

Distance

38% acc · 83%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

63% acc · 55%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Modestas Bukauskas rounds

even

Paul Craig rounds

Round 1Modestas Bukauskas edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control1:50

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 36

Sig Strikes

6 / 14

61%

Sig Str %

42%

29 / 44

Total Strikes

30 / 39

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:50

Ctrl Time

0:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Paul Craig	6 / 14	30 / 39	0 / 2	0
1	Modestas Bukauskas	22 / 36	29 / 44	0 / 0	0

Modestas Bukauskas

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20