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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Michal Oleksiejczuk won · S-DEC

Elo1538

Elo1508

Michal Oleksiejczuk editorial illustration

Modestas BukauskasvsMichal OleksiejczukUFC Prediction Result

UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · Saturday, March 27, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michal Oleksiejczuk won

S-DEC

Style matchupModestas Bukauskas: StrikervsMichal Oleksiejczuk: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Michal Oleksiejczuk wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Michal Oleksiejczuk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michal Oleksiejczuk at -177 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michal Oleksiejczuk is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Modestas Bukauskas has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Modestas Bukauskas has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Modestas Bukauskas (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Modestas Bukauskas

Red Corner

Michal Oleksiejczuk

Blue Corner

+157

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-177

(64%)

1538

Elo

1508

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Modestas Bukauskas

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Cerqueira · Feb 25

vs Ion Cutelaba · May 25

KOvs Paul Craig · Sep 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jan 26

DECvs Christian Edwards · May 26

latest

Michal Oleksiejczuk

oldest →

vs Shara Magomedov · Aug 24

KOvs Sedriques Dumas · Apr 25

KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 25

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Feb 26

SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Modestas BukauskasMetricMichal Oleksiejczuk

3.24

Strikes / min

5.85

4.05

Strikes absorbed / min

4.50

50%

Strike defense

59%

0.26

TDs / 15 min

1.02

79%

Takedown defense

52%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.81Δ 2.16 — meaningful gap+1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Modestas BukauskasMichal Oleksiejczuk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Modestas Bukauskas(10 fights)Michal Oleksiejczuk(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +30.3|Blue -30.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -238.0|Blue +238.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Modestas BukauskasTargetMichal Oleksiejczuk

By target zone

30% acc · 76%

Head

32% acc · 54%

67% acc · 24%

Body

90% acc · 46%

Leg

By position

35% acc · 95%

Distance

45% acc · 95%

38% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Modestas Bukauskas rounds

even

Michal Oleksiejczuk rounds

Round 1Modestas Bukauskas edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Modestas Bukauskas edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:04

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Michal Oleksiejczuk edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 167

Sig Strikes

56 / 122

34.7%

Sig Str %

45.3%

62 / 172

Total Strikes

77 / 144

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

1:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michal Oleksiejczuk	14 / 38	14 / 38	0 / 0
1	Modestas Bukauskas	18 / 62	18 / 63	0 / 1
2	Michal Oleksiejczuk	20 / 40	23 / 43	0 / 0
2	Modestas Bukauskas	23 / 56	23 / 56	0 / 0
3	Michal Oleksiejczuk	22 / 44	40 / 63	0 / 2
3	Modestas Bukauskas	17 / 49	21 / 53	0 / 0

Modestas Bukauskas

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Michal Oleksiejczuk

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18