Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Modestas Bukauskas won · SUB R3

Elo1538

Elo1489

Modestas BukauskasvsMarcin PrachnioUFC Prediction Result

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Saturday, July 27, 2024Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Modestas Bukauskas won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:12

Style matchupModestas Bukauskas: StrikervsMarcin Prachnio: Striker

Two strikers — expect distance work and a kickboxing-style battle.

Model Prediction: Marcin Prachnio wins(52.1%)

Actual result: Modestas Bukauskas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Modestas Bukauskas has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Modestas Bukauskas (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Modestas Bukauskas

Red Corner

Marcin Prachnio

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1538

Elo

1489

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Modestas Bukauskas

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Cerqueira · Feb 25

vs Ion Cutelaba · May 25

KOvs Paul Craig · Sep 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jan 26

DECvs Christian Edwards · May 26

latest

Marcin Prachnio

oldest →

vs Philipe Lins · Apr 22

vs William Knight · Feb 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · Jul 23

vs Devin Clark · Feb 24

SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Modestas BukauskasMetricMarcin Prachnio

3.24

Strikes / min

5.52

4.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.15

50%

Strike defense

54%

0.26

TDs / 15 min

0.14

79%

Takedown defense

53%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.81Δ 3.18 — meaningful gap+2.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Modestas BukauskasMarcin Prachnio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Modestas Bukauskas(10 fights)Marcin Prachnio(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +49.3|Blue -49.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Modestas BukauskasTargetMarcin Prachnio

By target zone

44% acc · 74%

Head

26% acc · 27%

78% acc · 18%

Body

70% acc · 44%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

95% acc · 29%

By position

47% acc · 76%

Distance

47% acc · 83%

43% acc · 8%

Clinch

75% acc · 17%

86% acc · 16%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Modestas Bukauskas rounds

even

Marcin Prachnio rounds

Round 1Marcin Prachnio edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:24

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Marcin Prachnio edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control2:19

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control2:48

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 76

Sig Strikes

70 / 139

45%

Sig Str %

50%

56 / 101

Total Strikes

120 / 200

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:31

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcin Prachnio	26 / 61	35 / 72	0 / 0	0
1	Modestas Bukauskas	19 / 39	19 / 39	0 / 0	0
2	Marcin Prachnio	34 / 58	67 / 98	0 / 0	0
2	Modestas Bukauskas	17 / 31	21 / 37	1 / 1	0
3	Marcin Prachnio	10 / 20	18 / 30	0 / 0	0
3	Modestas Bukauskas	2 / 6	16 / 25	1 / 1	1

Modestas Bukauskas

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Marcin Prachnio

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11