Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Khalil Rountree Jr. won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1538

Elo1502

Modestas BukauskasvsKhalil Rountree Jr.UFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · Saturday, September 4, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Khalil Rountree Jr. won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:30

Style matchupModestas Bukauskas: StrikervsKhalil Rountree Jr.: Striker

Two strikers — expect distance work and a kickboxing-style battle.

Model Prediction: Modestas Bukauskas wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Khalil Rountree Jr. wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Modestas Bukauskas at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Khalil Rountree Jr. is a KO finisher (70% of wins). Modestas Bukauskas has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Modestas Bukauskas has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Modestas Bukauskas (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Modestas Bukauskas

Red Corner

Khalil Rountree Jr.

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1538

Elo

1502

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Modestas Bukauskas

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Cerqueira · Feb 25

vs Ion Cutelaba · May 25

KOvs Paul Craig · Sep 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jan 26

DECvs Christian Edwards · May 26

latest

Khalil Rountree Jr.

oldest →

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Aug 23

KOvs Anthony Smith · Dec 23

KOvs Alex Pereira · Oct 24

vs Jamahal Hill · Jun 25

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Modestas BukauskasMetricKhalil Rountree Jr.

3.24

Strikes / min

3.88

4.05

Strikes absorbed / min

4.33

50%

Strike defense

49%

0.26

TDs / 15 min

0.00

79%

Takedown defense

58%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.81evenly matched on net striking-0.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Modestas BukauskasKhalil Rountree Jr.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Modestas Bukauskas(10 fights)Khalil Rountree Jr.(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.7|Blue -35.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Modestas BukauskasTargetKhalil Rountree Jr.

By target zone

41% acc · 78%

Head

25% acc · 47%

100% acc · 13%

Body

88% acc · 18%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 34%

By position

46% acc · 96%

Distance

41% acc · 100%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Modestas Bukauskas rounds

even

Khalil Rountree Jr. rounds

Round 1Khalil Rountree Jr. edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Khalil Rountree Jr. edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 49

Sig Strikes

38 / 92

44%

Sig Str %

40%

23 / 49

Total Strikes

38 / 92

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Khalil Rountree Jr.	28 / 65	28 / 65	0 / 0
1	Modestas Bukauskas	18 / 36	18 / 36	0 / 0
2	Khalil Rountree Jr.	10 / 27	10 / 27	0 / 0
2	Modestas Bukauskas	5 / 13	5 / 13	0 / 0

Modestas Bukauskas

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Khalil Rountree Jr.

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17