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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Modestas Bukauskas won · S-DEC R3

Elo1538

Elo1498

Modestas BukauskasvsIon CutelabaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · Saturday, May 10, 2025Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Modestas Bukauskas won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupModestas Bukauskas: StrikervsIon Cutelaba: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Ion Cutelaba wins(59.2%)

Actual result: Modestas Bukauskas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ion Cutelaba at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Modestas Bukauskas (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Modestas Bukauskas

Red Corner

Ion Cutelaba

Blue Corner

-106

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1538

Elo

1498

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Modestas Bukauskas

oldest →

SUBvs Marcin Prachnio · Jul 24

KOvs Rafael Cerqueira · Feb 25

KOvs Paul Craig · Sep 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jan 26

DECvs Christian Edwards · May 26

latest

Ion Cutelaba

oldest →

vs Philipe Lins · Mar 24

vs Ivan Erslan · Sep 24

SUBvs Ibo Aslan · Feb 25

SUBvs Oumar Sy · Mar 26

KOvs Navajo Stirling · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Modestas BukauskasMetricIon Cutelaba

3.24

Strikes / min

4.23

4.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.28

50%

Strike defense

47%

0.26

TDs / 15 min

3.76

79%

Takedown defense

75%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.81Δ 1.76 — meaningful gap+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Modestas BukauskasIon Cutelaba

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Modestas Bukauskas(10 fights)Ion Cutelaba(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +40.6|Blue -40.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Modestas BukauskasTargetIon Cutelaba

By target zone

44% acc · 84%

Head

24% acc · 31%

100% acc · 7%

Body

84% acc · 28%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

65% acc · 41%

By position

47% acc · 95%

Distance

40% acc · 81%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

85% acc · 19%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Modestas Bukauskas rounds

even

Ion Cutelaba rounds

Round 1Ion Cutelaba edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ion Cutelaba edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:24

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control1:02

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:23Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 92

Sig Strikes

58 / 130

48.7%

Sig Str %

44%

52 / 100

Total Strikes

121 / 194

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 4

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:26

Ctrl Time

2:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ion Cutelaba	17 / 46	17 / 46	0 / 0
1	Modestas Bukauskas	12 / 34	12 / 34	0 / 0
2	Ion Cutelaba	25 / 49	50 / 74	0 / 1
2	Modestas Bukauskas	16 / 32	18 / 34	0 / 0
3	Ion Cutelaba	16 / 35	54 / 74	0 / 3
3	Modestas Bukauskas	16 / 26	22 / 32	0 / 0

Modestas Bukauskas

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Ion Cutelaba

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights20