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Catch Weight
3 Rounds
Modestas Bukauskas won · Decision R3
Elo1538
Elo1478

Modestas BukauskasvsChristian EdwardsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · Saturday, May 16, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Modestas Bukauskas won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Modestas Bukauskas wins(67.3%)

Actual result: Modestas Bukauskas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Modestas Bukauskas has 50pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Modestas Bukauskas has 79pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Modestas Bukauskas
Red Corner
VS
Christian Edwards
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1538
Elo
1478
32
Age
27
Switch
Stance
N/A
6'3"
Height
N/A
193.04 cm
Reach
N/A

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Modestas Bukauskas
oldest →
W
SUBvs Marcin Prachnio · Jul 24
W
KOvs Rafael Cerqueira · Feb 25
W
vs Ion Cutelaba · May 25
W
KOvs Paul Craig · Sep 25
L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jan 26
latest
Christian EdwardsNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Modestas BukauskasMetricChristian Edwards
3.24
Strikes / min
0.00
4.05
Strikes absorbed / min
0.00
50%
Strike defense
0%
0.26
TDs / 15 min
0.00
79%
Takedown defense
0%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.81evenly matched on net striking0.00
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601483150515281550← oldermost recent →
Modestas Bukauskas(10 fights)Christian Edwards(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +60.4|Blue -60.4
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Modestas Bukauskas

StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12

Christian Edwards

Stance—
Height—
Reach—
Fights0