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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Modestas Bukauskas won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1538
Elo1426

Modestas BukauskasvsAndreas MichailidisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige · Wednesday, July 15, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Modestas Bukauskas won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Modestas Bukauskas wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Modestas Bukauskas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Modestas Bukauskas at -177 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Modestas Bukauskas has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Modestas Bukauskas (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Modestas Bukauskas
Red Corner
VS
Andreas Michailidis
Blue Corner
-177
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
1538
Elo
1426
32
Age
38
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Modestas Bukauskas
oldest →
W
KOvs Rafael Cerqueira · Feb 25
W
vs Ion Cutelaba · May 25
W
KOvs Paul Craig · Sep 25
L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jan 26
W
DECvs Christian Edwards · May 26
latest
Andreas MichailidisL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs KB Bhullar · May 21
L
KOvs Alex Pereira · Nov 21
L
vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jun 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Modestas BukauskasMetricAndreas Michailidis
3.24
Strikes / min
2.90
4.05
Strikes absorbed / min
3.57
50%
Strike defense
44%
0.26
TDs / 15 min
1.12
79%
Takedown defense
50%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.81evenly matched on net striking-0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes0.0 vs 0.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Modestas BukauskasAndreas Michailidis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Modestas Bukauskas(10 fights)Andreas Michailidis(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +112.0|Blue -112.0
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Modestas BukauskasTargetAndreas Michailidis

By target zone

11
28% acc · 61%
Head
8
31% acc · 35%
4
67% acc · 22%
Body
7
64% acc · 30%
3
100% acc · 17%
Leg
8
89% acc · 35%

By position

11
26% acc · 61%
Distance
23
51% acc · 100%
7
100% acc · 39%
Clinch
0
0% acc
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Modestas Bukauskas rounds
0
even
1
Andreas Michailidis rounds
Round 1Andreas Michailidis edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
18 / 49
Sig Strikes
23 / 46
36%
Sig Str %
50%
18 / 49
Total Strikes
23 / 46
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:09

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Andreas Michailidis23 / 4623 / 460 / 10
1Modestas Bukauskas18 / 4918 / 490 / 00

Modestas Bukauskas

StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12

Andreas Michailidis

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4