Featherweight

3 Rounds

Rani Yahya won · U-DEC R3

Elo1369

Elo1495

Mizuto HirotavsRani YahyaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann · Saturday, March 2, 2013Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Rani Yahya won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMizuto Hirota: Well-roundedvsRani Yahya: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Rani Yahya wins(66.4%)

Actual result: Rani Yahya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rani Yahya at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mizuto Hirota enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mizuto Hirota has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mizuto Hirota

Red Corner

Rani Yahya

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1369

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mizuto HirotaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Rodrigo Damm · Jun 13

vs Cole Miller · Dec 16

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jun 17

vs Ross Pearson · Feb 18

vs Christos Giagos · Dec 18

latest

Rani YahyaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ricky Simon · Feb 19

SUBvs Ray Rodriguez · Mar 21

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 21

KOvs Montel Jackson · Apr 23

KOvs Victor Henry · Apr 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mizuto HirotaMetricRani Yahya

3.36

Strikes / min

1.71

3.50

Strikes absorbed / min

2.08

54%

Strike defense

50%

1.36

TDs / 15 min

2.73

58%

Takedown defense

29%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.14evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mizuto HirotaRani Yahya

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mizuto Hirota(6 fights)Rani Yahya(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +48.4|Blue -48.4

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mizuto HirotaTargetRani Yahya

By target zone

23% acc · 75%

Head

42% acc · 85%

100% acc · 25%

Body

67% acc · 15%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

23% acc · 23%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

0% acc

Ground

60% acc · 69%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mizuto Hirota rounds

even

Rani Yahya rounds

Round 1Rani Yahya edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:49

3Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:21Control

Round 2Rani Yahya edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:15

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:20Control

Round 3Mizuto Hirota edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control2:06

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 14

Sig Strikes

13 / 29

13.3%

Sig Str %

41%

39 / 56

Total Strikes

105 / 122

1 / 1

TDs

5 / 12

100%

TD %

63%

Sub Att

Rev

3:10

Ctrl Time

8:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rani Yahya	3 / 8	55 / 61	3 / 4	0
1	Mizuto Hirota	0 / 1	3 / 5	0 / 0	0
2	Rani Yahya	8 / 13	46 / 51	1 / 1	1
2	Mizuto Hirota	0 / 3	5 / 8	0 / 0	0
3	Rani Yahya	2 / 8	4 / 10	1 / 7	0
3	Mizuto Hirota	4 / 10	31 / 43	1 / 1	0

Mizuto Hirota

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6

Rani Yahya

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19