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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Christos Giagos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1369

Elo1495

Mizuto HirotavsChristos GiagosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Saturday, December 1, 2018Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Christos Giagos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMizuto Hirota: Well-roundedvsChristos Giagos: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Mizuto Hirota wins(53.9%)

Actual result: Christos Giagos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mizuto Hirota at +310 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Christos Giagos has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mizuto Hirota

Red Corner

Christos Giagos

Blue Corner

+310

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-370

(79%)

1369

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'10"

170.18 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mizuto HirotaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rani Yahya · Mar 13

vs Rodrigo Damm · Jun 13

vs Cole Miller · Dec 16

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jun 17

vs Ross Pearson · Feb 18

latest

Christos GiagosL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Sep 21

SUBvs Thiago Moises · Jun 22

KOvs Ricky Glenn · Apr 23

SUBvs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 23

KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mizuto HirotaMetricChristos Giagos

3.36

Strikes / min

3.03

3.50

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

54%

Strike defense

50%

1.36

TDs / 15 min

2.84

58%

Takedown defense

52%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.14evenly matched on net striking-0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mizuto HirotaChristos Giagos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mizuto Hirota(6 fights)Christos Giagos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -125.6|Blue +125.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +224.0|Blue -224.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mizuto HirotaTargetChristos Giagos

By target zone

30% acc · 79%

Head

28% acc · 71%

100% acc · 21%

Body

89% acc · 26%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

29% acc · 63%

Distance

26% acc · 45%

40% acc · 21%

Clinch

75% acc · 10%

75% acc · 16%

Ground

42% acc · 45%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mizuto Hirota rounds

even

Christos Giagos rounds

Round 1Christos Giagos edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:41Control

Round 2Christos Giagos edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:58Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:05

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 55

Sig Strikes

31 / 90

33.7%

Sig Str %

27.3%

47 / 86

Total Strikes

63 / 131

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 10

—

TD %

72%

Sub Att

Rev

1:05

Ctrl Time

9:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Christos Giagos	21 / 51	33 / 64	2 / 2	0
1	Mizuto Hirota	8 / 19	12 / 23	0 / 0	1
2	Christos Giagos	9 / 31	25 / 55	2 / 2	0
2	Mizuto Hirota	4 / 15	8 / 21	0 / 0	0
3	Christos Giagos	1 / 8	5 / 12	1 / 6	0
3	Mizuto Hirota	7 / 21	27 / 42	0 / 0	0

Mizuto Hirota

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6

Christos Giagos

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights14