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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Andre Lima won · S-DEC R3

Elo1527

Elo1518

Mitch RaposovsAndre LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Saturday, June 1, 2024Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Andre Lima won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMitch Raposo: WrestlervsAndre Lima: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Andre Lima wins(70.9%)

Actual result: Andre Lima wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Mitch Raposo (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Mitch Raposo

Red Corner

Andre Lima

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1527

Elo

1518

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'7"

162.56 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mitch RaposoW2 streak

oldest →

vs Sumudaerji · Apr 25

vs Azat Maksum · Oct 25

DECvs Allan Nascimento · Jun 26

latest

Andre Lima

oldest →

vs Igor Severino · Mar 24

vs Felipe dos Santos · Sep 24

SUBvs Daniel Barez · Mar 25

DECvs Kevin Borjas · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mitch RaposoMetricAndre Lima

1.73

Strikes / min

4.06

2.65

Strikes absorbed / min

2.49

61%

Strike defense

57%

2.54

TDs / 15 min

1.36

61%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92Δ 2.49 — meaningful gap+1.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mitch RaposoAndre Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mitch Raposo(4 fights)Andre Lima(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.7|Blue -8.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mitch RaposoTargetAndre Lima

By target zone

34% acc · 63%

Head

30% acc · 27%

67% acc · 38%

Body

58% acc · 14%

Leg

73% acc · 59%

By position

42% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 96%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mitch Raposo rounds

even

Andre Lima rounds

Round 1Andre Lima edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:09

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Andre Lima edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 76

Sig Strikes

51 / 100

40.3%

Sig Str %

50.7%

32 / 76

Total Strikes

52 / 101

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andre Lima	17 / 29	17 / 29	0 / 0
1	Mitch Raposo	7 / 20	7 / 20	0 / 0
2	Andre Lima	13 / 29	13 / 29	0 / 0
2	Mitch Raposo	8 / 24	8 / 24	1 / 1
3	Andre Lima	21 / 42	22 / 43	0 / 1
3	Mitch Raposo	17 / 32	17 / 32	0 / 1

Mitch Raposo

StanceSwitch

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights4

Andre Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights5