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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mike Davis won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1440

Elo1495

Mitch RamirezvsMike DavisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Saturday, July 12, 2025Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Mike Davis won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:08

Model Prediction: Mike Davis wins(73.3%)

Actual result: Mike Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Davis at -900 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Davis is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Mitch Ramirez has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Mike Davis has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mike Davis has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mitch Ramirez

Red Corner

Mike Davis

Blue Corner

+520

(16%)

Vegas Odds

-900

(90%)

1440

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mitch RamirezL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Moises · Mar 24

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Jul 26

latest

Mike DavisL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mason Jones · Jan 21

vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Oct 22

SUBvs Natan Levy · Mar 24

vs Fares Ziam · Feb 25

DECvs Nurullo Aliev · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mitch RamirezMetricMike Davis

3.51

Strikes / min

4.73

3.98

Strikes absorbed / min

5.23

37%

Strike defense

54%

0.59

TDs / 15 min

2.40

25%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.47evenly matched on net striking-0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mitch RamirezMike Davis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mitch Ramirez(3 fights)Mike Davis(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -54.3|Blue +54.3

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +322.0|Blue -322.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mitch RamirezTargetMike Davis

By target zone

32% acc · 53%

Head

55% acc · 62%

80% acc · 16%

Body

75% acc · 32%

100% acc · 31%

Leg

75% acc · 6%

By position

44% acc · 90%

Distance

59% acc · 94%

83% acc · 10%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mitch Ramirez rounds

even

Mike Davis rounds

Round 1Mike Davis edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:20Control

Round 2Mike Davis edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns0

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 111

Sig Strikes

47 / 77

45%

Sig Str %

50%

57 / 118

Total Strikes

58 / 94

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

4:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Davis	3 / 8	13 / 24	1 / 2	2
1	Mitch Ramirez	8 / 18	14 / 25	0 / 1	0
2	Mike Davis	44 / 69	45 / 70	0 / 0	0
2	Mitch Ramirez	43 / 93	43 / 93	0 / 1	0

Mitch Ramirez

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3

Mike Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9