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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Mitch Gagnon won · SUB R1
Elo1373
Elo1352
Walel Watson

Mitch GagnonvsWalel WatsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · Saturday, September 22, 2012Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Mitch Gagnon won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:09

Model Prediction: Mitch Gagnon wins(65.7%)

Actual result: Mitch Gagnon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mitch Gagnon at +164 American odds

+$164 profit

$264 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mitch Gagnon enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Mitch Gagnon threatens submissions; Walel Watson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Mitch Gagnon has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Mitch Gagnon (53.5%).
  • Walel Watson has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mitch Gagnon
Red Corner
VS
Walel Watson
Blue Corner
+164
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-174
(64%)
1373
Elo
1352
41
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'11"
165.1 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mitch GagnonL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Tim Gorman · Apr 14
W
SUBvs Roman Salazar · Oct 14
L
SUBvs Renan Barao · Dec 14
L
vs Matthew Lopez · Dec 16
L
vs Cole Smith · May 19
latest
Walel WatsonL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Joseph Sandoval · Oct 11
L
vs Yves Jabouin · Dec 11
L
vs TJ Dillashaw · Feb 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mitch GagnonMetricWalel Watson
2.76
Strikes / min
2.10
2.21
Strikes absorbed / min
3.79
61%
Strike defense
43%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
0.00
65%
Takedown defense
61%
1.90
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.55Δ 2.24 — meaningful gap-1.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1485 vs 1483Strikes27.0 vs 22.3Takedowns1.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.00Form-1.0 vs -0.5
Mitch GagnonWalel Watson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Mitch Gagnon(8 fights)Walel Watson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +20.9|Blue -20.9
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -157.0|Blue +157.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mitch GagnonTargetWalel Watson

By target zone

5
50% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
1
100% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

1
25% acc · 20%
Distance
1
13% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
4
57% acc · 80%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Mitch Gagnon rounds
0
even
0
Walel Watson rounds
Round 1Mitch Gagnon edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:31
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
5 / 11
Sig Strikes
1 / 8
45%
Sig Str %
12%
6 / 12
Total Strikes
1 / 8
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:31
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Walel Watson1 / 81 / 80 / 00
1Mitch Gagnon5 / 116 / 120 / 01

Mitch Gagnon

StanceSouthpaw
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights8

Walel Watson

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights4