Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Mitch Gagnon won · U-DEC R3

Elo1373

Elo1354

Mitch GagnonvsTim GormanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy · Wednesday, April 16, 2014Quebec City, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Mitch Gagnon won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mitch Gagnon wins(68.3%)

Actual result: Mitch Gagnon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mitch Gagnon at -315 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mitch Gagnon enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mitch Gagnon has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mitch Gagnon has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mitch Gagnon

Red Corner

Tim Gorman

Blue Corner

-315

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+285

(26%)

1373

Elo

1354

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mitch GagnonL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Dustin Kimura · Sep 13

SUBvs Roman Salazar · Oct 14

SUBvs Renan Barao · Dec 14

vs Matthew Lopez · Dec 16

vs Cole Smith · May 19

latest

Tim Gorman

oldest →

vs Thomas Almeida · Nov 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mitch GagnonMetricTim Gorman

2.76

Strikes / min

2.73

2.21

Strikes absorbed / min

5.57

61%

Strike defense

46%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

1.00

65%

Takedown defense

33%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.55Δ 3.39 — meaningful gap-2.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mitch GagnonTim Gorman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mitch Gagnon(8 fights)Tim Gorman(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.8|Blue -18.8

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mitch GagnonTargetTim Gorman

By target zone

31% acc · 47%

Head

19% acc · 80%

95% acc · 40%

Body

100% acc · 7%

75% acc · 13%

Leg

50% acc · 13%

By position

38% acc · 57%

Distance

15% acc · 53%

79% acc · 23%

Clinch

54% acc · 47%

75% acc · 19%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mitch Gagnon rounds

even

Tim Gorman rounds

Round 1Mitch Gagnon edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:17Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:49

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:11Control

Round 3Mitch Gagnon edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns2

Control2:18

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 98

Sig Strikes

15 / 69

49.3%

Sig Str %

23.7%

93 / 144

Total Strikes

50 / 106

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 10

66%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:07

Ctrl Time

6:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Gorman	6 / 33	17 / 44	0 / 2	0
1	Mitch Gagnon	16 / 41	16 / 41	0 / 0	2
2	Tim Gorman	5 / 14	18 / 28	0 / 6	0
2	Mitch Gagnon	11 / 19	44 / 52	0 / 0	3
3	Tim Gorman	4 / 22	15 / 34	0 / 2	0
3	Mitch Gagnon	20 / 38	33 / 51	2 / 3	0

Mitch Gagnon

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8

Tim Gorman

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach—

Fights2