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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Mitch Gagnon won · SUB R1
Elo1373
Elo1355

Mitch GagnonvsRoman SalazarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · Saturday, October 4, 2014Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Official fight result

Mitch Gagnon won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:06

Model Prediction: Mitch Gagnon wins(72.7%)

Actual result: Mitch Gagnon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mitch Gagnon at -750 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mitch Gagnon enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Mitch Gagnon threatens submissions; Roman Salazar has lost 100% of fights by sub.
  • Mitch Gagnon has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Mitch Gagnon (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mitch Gagnon
Red Corner
VS
Roman Salazar
Blue Corner
-750
(88%)
Vegas Odds
+600
(14%)
1373
Elo
1355
41
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'7"
165.1 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mitch GagnonL3 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Dustin Kimura · Sep 13
W
vs Tim Gorman · Apr 14
L
SUBvs Renan Barao · Dec 14
L
vs Matthew Lopez · Dec 16
L
vs Cole Smith · May 19
latest
Roman Salazar
oldest →
L
SUBvs Marlon Vera · Aug 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mitch GagnonMetricRoman Salazar
2.76
Strikes / min
1.95
2.21
Strikes absorbed / min
2.89
61%
Strike defense
57%
1.16
TDs / 15 min
1.77
65%
Takedown defense
50%
1.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.55Δ 1.49 — meaningful gap-0.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1533 vs 1500Strikes26.5 vs —Takedowns1.0 vs —Sub Atts1.75 vs —Form0.8 vs 0.0
Mitch GagnonRoman Salazar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Mitch Gagnon(8 fights)Roman Salazar(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +17.4|Blue -17.4
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red -48.9|Blue +48.9
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mitch GagnonTargetRoman Salazar

By target zone

5
31% acc · 100%
Head
1
25% acc · 33%
0
0% acc
Body
1
100% acc · 33%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 33%

By position

3
23% acc · 60%
Distance
2
40% acc · 67%
1
50% acc · 20%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 33%
1
50% acc · 20%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Mitch Gagnon rounds
0
even
0
Roman Salazar rounds
Round 1Mitch Gagnon edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control0:56
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
5 / 17
Sig Strikes
3 / 6
29%
Sig Str %
50%
6 / 18
Total Strikes
3 / 6
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 2
50%
TD %
0%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:56
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Roman Salazar3 / 63 / 60 / 20
1Mitch Gagnon5 / 176 / 181 / 21

Mitch Gagnon

StanceSouthpaw
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights8

Roman Salazar

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach—
Fights2