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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Matthew Lopez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1373

Elo1369

Mitch GagnonvsMatthew LopezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · Saturday, December 10, 2016Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Matthew Lopez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMitch Gagnon: Submission grapplervsMatthew Lopez: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Matthew Lopez wins(58.4%)

Actual result: Matthew Lopez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matthew Lopez at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matthew Lopez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matthew Lopez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mitch Gagnon

Red Corner

Matthew Lopez

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1373

Elo

1369

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'7"

165.1 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mitch GagnonL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Dustin Kimura · Sep 13

vs Tim Gorman · Apr 14

SUBvs Roman Salazar · Oct 14

SUBvs Renan Barao · Dec 14

vs Cole Smith · May 19

latest

Matthew LopezL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rani Yahya · Jul 16

KOvs Johnny Eduardo · Jun 17

KOvs Raphael Assuncao · Nov 17

KOvs Alejandro Perez · Apr 18

vs Brad Katona · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mitch GagnonMetricMatthew Lopez

2.76

Strikes / min

3.13

2.21

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

61%

Strike defense

55%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

3.32

65%

Takedown defense

71%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.55Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap-0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mitch GagnonMatthew Lopez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mitch Gagnon(8 fights)Matthew Lopez(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.3|Blue -3.3

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +571.0|Blue -571.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mitch GagnonTargetMatthew Lopez

By target zone

55% acc · 71%

Head

47% acc · 67%

100% acc · 19%

Body

100% acc · 30%

75% acc · 10%

Leg

50% acc · 3%

By position

39% acc · 29%

Distance

50% acc · 50%

100% acc · 23%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

75% acc · 48%

Ground

57% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mitch Gagnon rounds

even

Matthew Lopez rounds

Round 1Mitch Gagnon edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control1:22

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:18Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Matthew Lopez edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:22

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:00Control

Round 3Matthew Lopez edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:19

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 50

Sig Strikes

30 / 54

55.3%

Sig Str %

57%

42 / 61

Total Strikes

53 / 78

1 / 4

TDs

5 / 6

16.5%

TD %

88.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:03

Ctrl Time

9:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matthew Lopez	11 / 21	14 / 25	1 / 1	0
1	Mitch Gagnon	24 / 36	25 / 37	1 / 3	0
2	Matthew Lopez	10 / 20	21 / 31	2 / 2	1
2	Mitch Gagnon	3 / 6	10 / 13	0 / 1	0
3	Matthew Lopez	9 / 13	18 / 22	2 / 3	0
3	Mitch Gagnon	4 / 8	7 / 11	0 / 0	0

Mitch Gagnon

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8

Matthew Lopez

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6