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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Mitch Gagnon won · SUB R1

Elo1373

Elo1354

Mitch GagnonvsDustin KimuraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · Saturday, September 21, 2013Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Mitch Gagnon won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:05

Style matchupMitch Gagnon: Submission grapplervsDustin Kimura: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Dustin Kimura wins(78.0%)

Actual result: Mitch Gagnon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Kimura at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mitch Gagnon enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mitch Gagnon threatens submissions; Dustin Kimura has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Dustin Kimura threatens submissions; Mitch Gagnon has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Mitch Gagnon has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mitch Gagnon has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mitch Gagnon (53.5%).
Dustin Kimura has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mitch Gagnon

Red Corner

Dustin Kimura

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1373

Elo

1354

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'7"

165.1 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mitch GagnonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Gorman · Apr 14

SUBvs Roman Salazar · Oct 14

SUBvs Renan Barao · Dec 14

vs Matthew Lopez · Dec 16

vs Cole Smith · May 19

latest

Dustin KimuraL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chico Camus · Feb 13

SUBvs Jon Delos Reyes · Jan 14

vs George Roop · Apr 14

vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mitch GagnonMetricDustin Kimura

2.76

Strikes / min

1.33

2.21

Strikes absorbed / min

3.82

61%

Strike defense

51%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

0.93

65%

Takedown defense

50%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

2.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.55Δ 3.04 — meaningful gap-2.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mitch GagnonDustin Kimura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mitch Gagnon(8 fights)Dustin Kimura(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.6|Blue -18.6

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mitch GagnonTargetDustin Kimura

By target zone

41% acc · 67%

Head

10% acc · 20%

56% acc · 19%

Body

100% acc · 40%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

75% acc · 40%

By position

42% acc · 74%

Distance

33% acc · 93%

83% acc · 19%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

67% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mitch Gagnon rounds

even

Dustin Kimura rounds

Round 1Mitch Gagnon edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control0:41

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 57

Sig Strikes

15 / 44

47%

Sig Str %

34%

27 / 58

Total Strikes

15 / 44

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:41

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Kimura	15 / 44	15 / 44	0 / 0	1
1	Mitch Gagnon	27 / 57	27 / 58	1 / 2	1

Mitch Gagnon

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8

Dustin Kimura

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5