Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Cole Smith won · U-DEC R3

Elo1373

Elo1388

Mitch GagnonvsCole SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · Saturday, May 4, 2019Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Cole Smith won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMitch Gagnon: Submission grapplervsCole Smith: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Mitch Gagnon wins(68.2%)

Actual result: Cole Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mitch Gagnon at -120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mitch Gagnon has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mitch Gagnon has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mitch Gagnon (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mitch Gagnon

Red Corner

Cole Smith

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1373

Elo

1388

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'11"

165.1 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mitch GagnonL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Dustin Kimura · Sep 13

vs Tim Gorman · Apr 14

SUBvs Roman Salazar · Oct 14

SUBvs Renan Barao · Dec 14

vs Matthew Lopez · Dec 16

latest

Cole SmithL2 streak

oldest →

vs Miles Johns · Sep 19

vs Hunter Azure · Sep 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mitch GagnonMetricCole Smith

2.76

Strikes / min

1.78

2.21

Strikes absorbed / min

1.96

61%

Strike defense

49%

1.16

TDs / 15 min

1.67

65%

Takedown defense

45%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.55evenly matched on net striking-0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mitch GagnonCole Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mitch Gagnon(8 fights)Cole Smith(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.9|Blue +15.9

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mitch GagnonTargetCole Smith

By target zone

26% acc · 73%

Head

32% acc · 34%

25% acc · 13%

Body

35% acc · 24%

50% acc · 13%

Leg

76% acc · 42%

By position

23% acc · 60%

Distance

38% acc · 71%

36% acc · 27%

Clinch

67% acc · 26%

67% acc · 13%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mitch Gagnon rounds

even

Cole Smith rounds

Round 1Cole Smith edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:31

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:46Control

Round 2Cole Smith edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:23

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:30Control

Round 3Cole Smith edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:12

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:48Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 54

Sig Strikes

38 / 88

27.7%

Sig Str %

42.7%

23 / 62

Total Strikes

56 / 111

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 4

TD %

66.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:06

Ctrl Time

8:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cole Smith	15 / 35	17 / 37	1 / 3	0
1	Mitch Gagnon	7 / 20	7 / 20	0 / 1	0
2	Cole Smith	15 / 35	19 / 41	1 / 1	1
2	Mitch Gagnon	5 / 23	13 / 31	0 / 0	0
3	Cole Smith	8 / 18	20 / 33	0 / 0	1
3	Mitch Gagnon	3 / 11	3 / 11	0 / 0	2

Mitch Gagnon

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8

Cole Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3