Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mitch Clarke won · U-DEC R3

Elo1362

Elo1352

Mitch ClarkevsJohn MaguireUFC Prediction Result

UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · Saturday, June 15, 2013Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

Official fight result

Mitch Clarke won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: John Maguire wins(74.3%)

Actual result: Mitch Clarke wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Maguire at -250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mitch Clarke enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
John Maguire has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
John Maguire has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors John Maguire (53.5%).
Mitch Clarke has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mitch Clarke

Red Corner

John Maguire

Blue Corner

+230

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1362

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mitch ClarkeL3 streak

oldest →

vs Anton Kuivanen · Jul 12

SUBvs Al Iaquinta · May 14

vs Michael Chiesa · Apr 15

SUBvs Joe Duffy · Jul 16

KOvs Alex White · Sep 17

latest

John MaguireL2 streak

oldest →

vs Justin Edwards · Nov 11

SUBvs DaMarques Johnson · Apr 12

vs John Hathaway · Sep 12

vs Matthew Riddle · Nov 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mitch ClarkeMetricJohn Maguire

2.35

Strikes / min

1.41

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

47%

Strike defense

65%

0.64

TDs / 15 min

2.80

50%

Takedown defense

77%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92evenly matched on net striking-1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mitch ClarkeJohn Maguire

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mitch Clarke(7 fights)John Maguire(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.5|Blue -9.5

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mitch ClarkeTargetJohn Maguire

By target zone

28% acc · 39%

Head

30% acc · 73%

42% acc · 12%

Body

100% acc · 27%

57% acc · 49%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 63%

Distance

27% acc · 53%

73% acc · 27%

Clinch

67% acc · 27%

40% acc · 10%

Ground

60% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mitch Clarke rounds

even

John Maguire rounds

Round 1Mitch Clarke edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:57Control

Round 2John Maguire edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:48

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:44Control

Round 3Mitch Clarke edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:40

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 105

Sig Strikes

15 / 41

40%

Sig Str %

39.7%

118 / 188

Total Strikes

66 / 95

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 7

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:28

Ctrl Time

6:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	John Maguire	6 / 22	13 / 29	0 / 2
1	Mitch Clarke	19 / 53	42 / 77	0 / 0
2	John Maguire	6 / 12	42 / 48	2 / 2
2	Mitch Clarke	13 / 25	34 / 47	0 / 1
3	John Maguire	3 / 7	11 / 18	1 / 3
3	Mitch Clarke	9 / 27	42 / 64	0 / 0

Mitch Clarke

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

John Maguire

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5