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Lightweight

3 Rounds

John Cholish won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1362

Elo1352

Mitch ClarkevsJohn CholishUFC Prediction Result

UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · Saturday, December 10, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

John Cholish won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:36

Model Prediction: John Cholish wins(51.4%)

Actual result: John Cholish wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Cholish at -345 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mitch Clarke enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mitch Clarke threatens submissions; John Cholish has lost 50% of fights by sub.
John Cholish has 26pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
John Cholish has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mitch Clarke

Red Corner

John Cholish

Blue Corner

+315

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-345

(78%)

1362

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mitch ClarkeL3 streak

oldest →

vs John Maguire · Jun 13

SUBvs Al Iaquinta · May 14

vs Michael Chiesa · Apr 15

SUBvs Joe Duffy · Jul 16

KOvs Alex White · Sep 17

latest

John CholishL2 streak

oldest →

vs Danny Castillo · May 12

SUBvs Gleison Tibau · May 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mitch ClarkeMetricJohn Cholish

2.35

Strikes / min

2.65

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

2.29

47%

Strike defense

73%

0.64

TDs / 15 min

1.82

50%

Takedown defense

78%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+0.36

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mitch Clarke(7 fights)John Cholish(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.5|Blue -9.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mitch ClarkeTargetJohn Cholish

By target zone

8% acc · 59%

Head

67% acc · 76%

50% acc · 12%

Body

43% acc · 5%

71% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

11% acc · 82%

Distance

64% acc · 64%

33% acc · 18%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

77% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mitch Clarke rounds

even

John Cholish rounds

Round 1John Cholish edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:14

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 2John Cholish edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:03

38Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 131

Sig Strikes

55 / 80

13%

Sig Str %

66.5%

25 / 139

Total Strikes

69 / 95

0 / 3

TDs

1 / 6

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

2:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	John Cholish	17 / 28	22 / 33	0 / 4
1	Mitch Clarke	5 / 69	9 / 73	0 / 2
2	John Cholish	38 / 52	47 / 62	1 / 2
2	Mitch Clarke	12 / 62	16 / 66	0 / 1

Mitch Clarke

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

John Cholish

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3