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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Anton Kuivanen won · S-DEC R3

Elo1362

Elo1490

Mitch ClarkevsAnton KuivanenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · Saturday, July 21, 2012Calgary, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Anton Kuivanen won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Anton Kuivanen wins(69.1%)

Actual result: Anton Kuivanen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anton Kuivanen at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mitch Clarke enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mitch Clarke threatens submissions; Anton Kuivanen has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Anton Kuivanen has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Anton Kuivanen has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mitch Clarke

Red Corner

Anton Kuivanen

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1362

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mitch ClarkeL3 streak

oldest →

vs John Maguire · Jun 13

SUBvs Al Iaquinta · May 14

vs Michael Chiesa · Apr 15

SUBvs Joe Duffy · Jul 16

KOvs Alex White · Sep 17

latest

Anton KuivanenL2 streak

oldest →

vs Justin Salas · Feb 12

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Feb 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mitch ClarkeMetricAnton Kuivanen

2.35

Strikes / min

2.27

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

1.63

47%

Strike defense

67%

0.64

TDs / 15 min

1.20

50%

Takedown defense

71%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92Δ 1.56 — meaningful gap+0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mitch ClarkeAnton Kuivanen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mitch Clarke(7 fights)Anton Kuivanen(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -128.5|Blue +128.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +67.0|Blue -67.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mitch ClarkeTargetAnton Kuivanen

By target zone

25% acc · 100%

Head

51% acc · 83%

Body

80% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

24% acc · 83%

Distance

36% acc · 34%

100% acc · 17%

Clinch

75% acc · 10%

0% acc

Ground

76% acc · 55%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mitch Clarke rounds

even

Anton Kuivanen rounds

Round 1Mitch Clarke edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns2

Control2:53

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:34Control

Round 2Anton Kuivanen edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:08

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:18Control

Round 3Anton Kuivanen edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:26

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:33Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 24

Sig Strikes

29 / 53

27.3%

Sig Str %

48.3%

29 / 52

Total Strikes

66 / 93

3 / 8

TDs

3 / 3

55.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:27

Ctrl Time

7:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anton Kuivanen	7 / 13	21 / 28	0 / 0	0
1	Mitch Clarke	1 / 4	14 / 18	2 / 3	1
2	Anton Kuivanen	3 / 12	12 / 23	1 / 1	0
2	Mitch Clarke	2 / 13	12 / 27	1 / 1	0
3	Anton Kuivanen	19 / 28	33 / 42	2 / 2	1
3	Mitch Clarke	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 4	0

Mitch Clarke

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Anton Kuivanen

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3