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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alex White won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1362

Elo1492

Mitch ClarkevsAlex WhiteUFC Prediction Result

UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · Saturday, September 9, 2017Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Alex White won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:36

Model Prediction: Alex White wins(56.7%)

Actual result: Alex White wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex White at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex White has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alex White has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex White (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mitch Clarke

Red Corner

Alex White

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1362

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mitch ClarkeL2 streak

oldest →

vs Anton Kuivanen · Jul 12

vs John Maguire · Jun 13

SUBvs Al Iaquinta · May 14

vs Michael Chiesa · Apr 15

SUBvs Joe Duffy · Jul 16

latest

Alex White

oldest →

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Jan 17

vs James Krause · Jan 18

SUBvs Jim Miller · Sep 18

vs Dan Moret · Mar 19

vs Rafael Fiziev · Oct 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mitch ClarkeMetricAlex White

2.35

Strikes / min

3.76

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

3.07

47%

Strike defense

60%

0.64

TDs / 15 min

0.92

50%

Takedown defense

71%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92Δ 1.61 — meaningful gap+0.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mitch ClarkeAlex White

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mitch Clarke(7 fights)Alex White(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -130.2|Blue +130.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +192.0|Blue -192.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mitch ClarkeTargetAlex White

By target zone

27% acc · 39%

Head

46% acc · 81%

42% acc · 29%

Body

77% acc · 18%

39% acc · 32%

Leg

50% acc · 2%

By position

26% acc · 64%

Distance

37% acc · 49%

77% acc · 36%

Clinch

76% acc · 49%

0% acc

Ground

33% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mitch Clarke rounds

even

Alex White rounds

Round 1Mitch Clarke edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alex White edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:26

Knockdowns0

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

3Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 83

Sig Strikes

57 / 115

31%

Sig Str %

45.5%

34 / 90

Total Strikes

62 / 122

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:26

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alex White	14 / 39	18 / 44	0 / 0
1	Mitch Clarke	21 / 53	23 / 56	0 / 2
2	Alex White	43 / 76	44 / 78	0 / 0
2	Mitch Clarke	7 / 30	11 / 34	0 / 2

Mitch Clarke

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Alex White

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10