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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Wellington Turman won · SUB R2

Elo1437

Elo1484

Wellington Turman editorial illustration

Misha CirkunovvsWellington TurmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Saturday, February 26, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Wellington Turman won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:29

Model Prediction: Misha Cirkunov wins(62.6%)

Actual result: Wellington Turman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Misha Cirkunov at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Misha Cirkunov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Wellington Turman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Misha Cirkunov has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Misha Cirkunov has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Misha Cirkunov has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Misha Cirkunov

Red Corner

Wellington Turman

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1437

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Misha CirkunovL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Johnny Walker · Mar 19

SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Sep 19

KOvs Ryan Spann · Mar 21

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Oct 21

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Oct 22

latest

Wellington TurmanL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bruno Silva · Jun 21

vs Sam Alvey · Aug 21

vs Andre Petroski · Nov 22

vs Randy Brown · Jun 23

SUBvs Jared Gooden · Dec 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Misha CirkunovMetricWellington Turman

3.86

Strikes / min

3.23

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

4.17

57%

Strike defense

45%

4.15

TDs / 15 min

1.55

76%

Takedown defense

42%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap-0.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Misha CirkunovWellington Turman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Misha Cirkunov(10 fights)Wellington Turman(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -47.3|Blue +47.3

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Misha CirkunovTargetWellington Turman

By target zone

61% acc · 67%

Head

67% acc · 53%

90% acc · 30%

Body

100% acc · 40%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

50% acc · 27%

Distance

67% acc · 53%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 47%

77% acc · 67%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Misha Cirkunov rounds

even

Wellington Turman rounds

Round 1Misha Cirkunov edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control2:06

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:15Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:58

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 44

Sig Strikes

15 / 19

68.5%

Sig Str %

75%

50 / 64

Total Strikes

24 / 28

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 3

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:04

Ctrl Time

2:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Wellington Turman	4 / 6	8 / 10	0 / 3	1
1	Misha Cirkunov	23 / 34	33 / 44	0 / 1	1
2	Wellington Turman	11 / 13	16 / 18	0 / 0	1
2	Misha Cirkunov	7 / 10	17 / 20	1 / 2	0

Misha Cirkunov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights13

Wellington Turman

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9