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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Misha Cirkunov won · SUB R1
Elo1437
Misha Cirkunov
Elo1373
Patrick Cummins

Misha CirkunovvsPatrick CumminsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · Saturday, October 27, 2018Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada

Official fight result

Misha Cirkunov won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:40

Style matchupMisha Cirkunov: WrestlervsPatrick Cummins: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Misha Cirkunov wins(50.9%)

Actual result: Misha Cirkunov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Misha Cirkunov at -345 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Misha Cirkunov enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Misha Cirkunov has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Misha Cirkunov
Red Corner
VS
Patrick Cummins
Blue Corner
-345
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+285
(26%)
1437
Elo
1373
39
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'2"
195.58 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Misha CirkunovL4 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Sep 19
L
KOvs Ryan Spann · Mar 21
L
vs Krzysztof Jotko · Oct 21
L
SUBvs Wellington Turman · Feb 22
L
KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Oct 22
latest
Patrick CumminsL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · May 16
W
vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 17
W
vs Gian Villante · Jul 17
L
vs Corey Anderson · Apr 18
L
KOvs Ed Herman · May 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Misha CirkunovMetricPatrick Cummins
3.86
Strikes / min
4.26
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
3.35
57%
Strike defense
55%
4.15
TDs / 15 min
4.49
76%
Takedown defense
28%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1530 vs 1515Strikes23.0 vs 43.0Takedowns1.5 vs 3.1Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.09Form-0.3 vs -0.2
Misha CirkunovPatrick Cummins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Misha Cirkunov(10 fights)Patrick Cummins(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +64.2|Blue -64.2
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +126.0|Blue -126.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Misha CirkunovTargetPatrick Cummins

By target zone

2
33% acc · 18%
Head
0
0% acc
9
75% acc · 82%
Body
3
75% acc · 100%
0
Leg
0

By position

1
20% acc · 9%
Distance
0
0% acc
9
75% acc · 82%
Clinch
3
75% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 9%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Misha Cirkunov rounds
0
even
0
Patrick Cummins rounds
Round 1Misha Cirkunov edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control0:40
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:26Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
11 / 18
Sig Strikes
3 / 5
61%
Sig Str %
60%
65 / 72
Total Strikes
6 / 8
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 3
100%
TD %
0%
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:40
Ctrl Time
1:26

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Patrick Cummins3 / 56 / 80 / 30
1Misha Cirkunov11 / 1865 / 721 / 12

Misha Cirkunov

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights13

Patrick Cummins

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights13