← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Krzysztof Jotko won · S-DEC R3

Elo1437

Elo1496

Misha CirkunovvsKrzysztof JotkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Saturday, October 2, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Krzysztof Jotko won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMisha Cirkunov: WrestlervsKrzysztof Jotko: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Misha Cirkunov wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Krzysztof Jotko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Misha Cirkunov at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Misha Cirkunov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Misha Cirkunov threatens submissions; Krzysztof Jotko has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Krzysztof Jotko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Misha Cirkunov

Red Corner

Krzysztof Jotko

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1437

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Misha CirkunovL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Johnny Walker · Mar 19

SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Sep 19

KOvs Ryan Spann · Mar 21

SUBvs Wellington Turman · Feb 22

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Oct 22

latest

Krzysztof Jotko

oldest →

vs Alen Amedovski · Apr 19

vs Eryk Anders · May 20

vs Sean Strickland · May 21

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 22

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Misha CirkunovMetricKrzysztof Jotko

3.86

Strikes / min

2.98

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

2.23

57%

Strike defense

57%

4.15

TDs / 15 min

1.33

76%

Takedown defense

82%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Misha CirkunovKrzysztof Jotko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Misha Cirkunov(10 fights)Krzysztof Jotko(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -59.0|Blue +59.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Misha CirkunovTargetKrzysztof Jotko

By target zone

22% acc · 32%

Head

30% acc · 56%

77% acc · 24%

Body

86% acc · 15%

95% acc · 44%

Leg

100% acc · 29%

By position

37% acc · 68%

Distance

42% acc · 90%

75% acc · 15%

Clinch

67% acc · 10%

100% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Misha Cirkunov rounds

even

Krzysztof Jotko rounds

Round 1Misha Cirkunov edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:09

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:51

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Misha Cirkunov edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns5

Control2:06

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:36Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 91

Sig Strikes

41 / 95

45.7%

Sig Str %

43%

55 / 106

Total Strikes

56 / 115

5 / 17

TDs

1 / 3

16.7%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

4:06

Ctrl Time

0:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Krzysztof Jotko	8 / 21	12 / 26	0 / 1
1	Misha Cirkunov	13 / 27	21 / 35	0 / 5
2	Krzysztof Jotko	17 / 32	19 / 34	0 / 0
2	Misha Cirkunov	14 / 38	18 / 42	0 / 2
3	Krzysztof Jotko	16 / 42	25 / 55	1 / 2
3	Misha Cirkunov	14 / 26	16 / 29	5 / 10

Misha Cirkunov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights13

Krzysztof Jotko

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16