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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Misha Cirkunov won · SUB R3

Elo1437

Elo1498

Misha CirkunovvsIon CutelabaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · Saturday, June 18, 2016Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Misha Cirkunov won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:22

Style matchupMisha Cirkunov: WrestlervsIon Cutelaba: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Misha Cirkunov wins(86.4%)

Actual result: Misha Cirkunov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Misha Cirkunov at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Misha Cirkunov enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Misha Cirkunov threatens submissions; Ion Cutelaba has lost 36% of fights by sub.
Misha Cirkunov has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Ion Cutelaba (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Misha Cirkunov

Red Corner

Ion Cutelaba

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1437

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Misha CirkunovL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Sep 19

KOvs Ryan Spann · Mar 21

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Oct 21

SUBvs Wellington Turman · Feb 22

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Oct 22

latest

Ion Cutelaba

oldest →

vs Ivan Erslan · Sep 24

SUBvs Ibo Aslan · Feb 25

vs Modestas Bukauskas · May 25

SUBvs Oumar Sy · Mar 26

KOvs Navajo Stirling · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Misha CirkunovMetricIon Cutelaba

3.86

Strikes / min

4.23

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

3.28

57%

Strike defense

47%

4.15

TDs / 15 min

3.76

76%

Takedown defense

75%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Misha CirkunovIon Cutelaba

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Misha Cirkunov(10 fights)Ion Cutelaba(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -60.5|Blue +60.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Misha CirkunovTargetIon Cutelaba

By target zone

46% acc · 82%

Head

13% acc · 50%

47% acc · 16%

Body

41% acc · 29%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 21%

By position

43% acc · 80%

Distance

18% acc · 83%

69% acc · 20%

Clinch

75% acc · 13%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Misha Cirkunov rounds

even

Ion Cutelaba rounds

Round 1Misha Cirkunov edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Misha Cirkunov edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:39

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Misha Cirkunov edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control0:35

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 94

Sig Strikes

24 / 115

46%

Sig Str %

22.3%

55 / 106

Total Strikes

25 / 116

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:14

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ion Cutelaba	10 / 58	10 / 58	0 / 0	0
1	Misha Cirkunov	21 / 41	22 / 42	0 / 2	0
2	Ion Cutelaba	11 / 46	12 / 47	0 / 1	0
2	Misha Cirkunov	19 / 44	28 / 53	0 / 0	0
3	Ion Cutelaba	3 / 11	3 / 11	0 / 0	0
3	Misha Cirkunov	4 / 9	5 / 11	1 / 1	1

Misha Cirkunov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights13

Ion Cutelaba

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights20