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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Misha Cirkunov won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1437
Misha Cirkunov
Elo1359
Daniel Jolly

Misha CirkunovvsDaniel JollyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · Sunday, August 23, 2015Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

Official fight result

Misha Cirkunov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:45

Style matchupMisha Cirkunov: WrestlervsDaniel Jolly: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Misha Cirkunov wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Misha Cirkunov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Misha Cirkunov at -570 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Misha Cirkunov enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Misha Cirkunov has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Misha Cirkunov has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Misha Cirkunov
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Jolly
Blue Corner
-570
(85%)
Vegas Odds
+435
(19%)
1437
Elo
1359
39
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'1"
195.58 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Misha CirkunovL4 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Sep 19
L
KOvs Ryan Spann · Mar 21
L
vs Krzysztof Jotko · Oct 21
L
SUBvs Wellington Turman · Feb 22
L
KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Oct 22
latest
Daniel Jolly
oldest →
L
KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Feb 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Misha CirkunovMetricDaniel Jolly
3.86
Strikes / min
1.32
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
3.39
57%
Strike defense
44%
4.15
TDs / 15 min
2.83
76%
Takedown defense
50%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80Δ 2.87 — meaningful gap-2.07
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Misha Cirkunov(10 fights)Daniel Jolly(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +77.8|Blue -77.8
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Misha CirkunovTargetDaniel Jolly

By target zone

20
80% acc · 83%
Head
1
20% acc · 17%
4
100% acc · 17%
Body
4
100% acc · 67%
0
Leg
1
20% acc · 17%

By position

6
55% acc · 25%
Distance
5
38% acc · 83%
1
100% acc · 4%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 17%
17
100% acc · 71%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Misha Cirkunov rounds
0
even
0
Daniel Jolly rounds
Round 1Misha Cirkunov edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns3
Control2:55
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:29Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
24 / 29
Sig Strikes
6 / 14
82%
Sig Str %
42%
62 / 76
Total Strikes
10 / 21
3 / 4
TDs
0 / 0
75%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:55
Ctrl Time
0:29

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Daniel Jolly6 / 1410 / 210 / 00
1Misha Cirkunov24 / 2962 / 763 / 40

Misha Cirkunov

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights13

Daniel Jolly

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights2