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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Misha Cirkunov won · SUB R2

Elo1437

Elo1360

Misha CirkunovvsAlex NicholsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · Saturday, February 6, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Misha Cirkunov won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:28

Style matchupMisha Cirkunov: WrestlervsAlex Nicholson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Misha Cirkunov wins(84.7%)

Actual result: Misha Cirkunov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Misha Cirkunov at -700 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Misha Cirkunov enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Alex Nicholson is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Misha Cirkunov has lost 71% of fights by KO.
Misha Cirkunov threatens submissions; Alex Nicholson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Misha Cirkunov has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Misha Cirkunov has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Misha Cirkunov

Red Corner

Alex Nicholson

Blue Corner

-700

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+500

(17%)

1437

Elo

1360

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Misha CirkunovL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Sep 19

KOvs Ryan Spann · Mar 21

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Oct 21

SUBvs Wellington Turman · Feb 22

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Oct 22

latest

Alex NicholsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Devin Clark · Jul 16

vs Sam Alvey · Nov 16

KOvs Jack Hermansson · May 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Misha CirkunovMetricAlex Nicholson

3.86

Strikes / min

4.12

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

4.65

57%

Strike defense

47%

4.15

TDs / 15 min

0.00

76%

Takedown defense

50%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap-0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Misha CirkunovAlex Nicholson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Misha Cirkunov(10 fights)Alex Nicholson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +76.6|Blue -76.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Misha CirkunovTargetAlex Nicholson

By target zone

48% acc · 72%

Head

25% acc · 63%

55% acc · 19%

Body

25% acc · 6%

75% acc · 9%

Leg

71% acc · 31%

By position

45% acc · 56%

Distance

33% acc · 94%

57% acc · 38%

Clinch

20% acc · 6%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Misha Cirkunov rounds

even

Alex Nicholson rounds

Round 1Misha Cirkunov edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns2

Control1:21

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Misha Cirkunov edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control0:47

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 63

Sig Strikes

16 / 51

44.5%

Sig Str %

36%

66 / 109

Total Strikes

16 / 51

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:08

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Nicholson	12 / 42	12 / 42	0 / 0	0
1	Misha Cirkunov	28 / 52	38 / 70	2 / 4	0
2	Alex Nicholson	4 / 9	4 / 9	0 / 0	0
2	Misha Cirkunov	4 / 11	28 / 39	1 / 2	1

Misha Cirkunov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights13

Alex Nicholson

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4