Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Featherweight
3 Rounds
Mirsad Bektic won · SUB R1
Elo1389
Elo1491
Russell Doane

Mirsad BekticvsRussell DoaneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · Saturday, October 8, 2016Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Mirsad Bektic won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:22

Style matchupMirsad Bektic: WrestlervsRussell Doane: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Mirsad Bektic wins(80.5%)

Actual result: Mirsad Bektic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mirsad Bektic at -580 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mirsad Bektic enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Mirsad Bektic has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mirsad Bektic
Red Corner
VS
Russell Doane
Blue Corner
-580
(85%)
Vegas Odds
+440
(19%)
1389
Elo
1491
35
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'7"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mirsad BekticL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Godofredo Pepey · Jan 18
W
vs Ricardo Lamas · Jun 18
L
KOvs Josh Emmett · Jul 19
L
vs Dan Ige · Feb 20
L
SUBvs Damon Jackson · Sep 20
latest
Russell Doane
oldest →
L
vs Iuri Alcantara · Sep 14
L
vs Jerrod Sanders · Jul 15
L
SUBvs Pedro Munhoz · Jul 16
W
KOvs Kwan Ho Kwak · Jun 17
L
SUBvs Rani Yahya · Feb 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mirsad BekticMetricRussell Doane
2.43
Strikes / min
1.75
1.80
Strikes absorbed / min
1.68
57%
Strike defense
53%
3.98
TDs / 15 min
2.11
92%
Takedown defense
52%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.63evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1547 vs 1483Strikes33.3 vs 22.4Takedowns2.3 vs 2.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.80Form1.0 vs -0.8
Mirsad BekticRussell Doane

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Mirsad Bektic(10 fights)Russell Doane(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -101.9|Blue +101.9
Recent Form
Red +1.8|Blue -1.8
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +404.0|Blue -404.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mirsad BekticTargetRussell Doane

By target zone

4
40% acc · 100%
Head
3
33% acc · 50%
0
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
3
60% acc · 50%

By position

4
40% acc · 100%
Distance
4
36% acc · 67%
0
Clinch
1
100% acc · 17%
0
Ground
1
33% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Mirsad Bektic rounds
0
even
0
Russell Doane rounds
Round 1Mirsad Bektic edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns4
Control3:21
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
4 / 10
Sig Strikes
6 / 15
40%
Sig Str %
40%
20 / 27
Total Strikes
6 / 16
4 / 6
TDs
0 / 0
66%
TD %
—
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:21
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Russell Doane6 / 156 / 160 / 00
1Mirsad Bektic4 / 1020 / 274 / 62

Mirsad Bektic

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10

Russell Doane

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights8