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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Mirsad Bektic won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1389
Elo1364

Mirsad BekticvsGodofredo PepeyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · Saturday, January 27, 2018Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Mirsad Bektic won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:47

Model Prediction: Mirsad Bektic wins(75.9%)

Actual result: Mirsad Bektic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mirsad Bektic at -550 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mirsad Bektic enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Mirsad Bektic has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Mirsad Bektic has 57pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mirsad Bektic
Red Corner
VS
Godofredo Pepey
Blue Corner
-550
(85%)
Vegas Odds
+425
(19%)
1389
Elo
1364
35
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'7"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mirsad BekticL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Darren Elkins · Mar 17
W
vs Ricardo Lamas · Jun 18
L
KOvs Josh Emmett · Jul 19
L
vs Dan Ige · Feb 20
L
SUBvs Damon Jackson · Sep 20
latest
Godofredo Pepey
oldest →
W
SUBvs Dashon Johnson · Sep 14
W
SUBvs Andre Fili · Mar 15
L
vs Darren Elkins · Jul 16
W
SUBvs Mike de la Torre · Sep 16
L
vs Shane Burgos · Jul 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mirsad BekticMetricGodofredo Pepey
2.43
Strikes / min
2.32
1.80
Strikes absorbed / min
3.23
57%
Strike defense
47%
3.98
TDs / 15 min
0.37
92%
Takedown defense
35%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.63Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap-0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1545 vs 1506Strikes32.8 vs 18.4Takedowns3.0 vs 0.2Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.80Form0.0 vs -0.4
Mirsad BekticGodofredo Pepey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Mirsad Bektic(10 fights)Godofredo Pepey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +25.4|Blue -25.4
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +140.0|Blue -140.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mirsad BekticTargetGodofredo Pepey

By target zone

7
29% acc · 58%
Head
2
17% acc · 40%
1
25% acc · 8%
Body
2
50% acc · 40%
4
80% acc · 33%
Leg
1
100% acc · 20%

By position

9
31% acc · 75%
Distance
4
25% acc · 80%
0
Clinch
1
100% acc · 20%
3
75% acc · 25%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Mirsad Bektic rounds
0
even
0
Godofredo Pepey rounds
Round 1Mirsad Bektic edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:04
Knockdowns1
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
12 / 33
Sig Strikes
5 / 17
36%
Sig Str %
29%
12 / 34
Total Strikes
5 / 17
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:04
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Godofredo Pepey5 / 175 / 170 / 00
1Mirsad Bektic12 / 3312 / 340 / 00

Mirsad Bektic

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10

Godofredo Pepey

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights11