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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Darren Elkins won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1389

Elo1499

Mirsad BekticvsDarren ElkinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · Saturday, March 4, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Darren Elkins won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:19

Style matchupMirsad Bektic: WrestlervsDarren Elkins: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Darren Elkins wins(60.7%)

Actual result: Darren Elkins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darren Elkins at +525 American odds

+$525 profit

$625 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mirsad Bektic enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mirsad Bektic has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mirsad Bektic

Red Corner

Darren Elkins

Blue Corner

-750

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+525

(16%)

1389

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mirsad BekticL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Godofredo Pepey · Jan 18

vs Ricardo Lamas · Jun 18

KOvs Josh Emmett · Jul 19

vs Dan Ige · Feb 20

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Sep 20

latest

Darren Elkins

oldest →

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mirsad BekticMetricDarren Elkins

2.43

Strikes / min

3.40

1.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.34

57%

Strike defense

51%

3.98

TDs / 15 min

2.87

92%

Takedown defense

56%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.63evenly matched on net striking+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mirsad BekticDarren Elkins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mirsad Bektic(10 fights)Darren Elkins(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -110.4|Blue +110.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mirsad BekticTargetDarren Elkins

By target zone

60% acc · 92%

Head

31% acc · 50%

80% acc · 7%

Body

100% acc · 36%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

35% acc · 28%

Distance

17% acc · 21%

88% acc · 12%

Clinch

91% acc · 36%

86% acc · 60%

Ground

100% acc · 43%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mirsad Bektic rounds

even

Darren Elkins rounds

Round 1Mirsad Bektic edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns1

Control4:22

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mirsad Bektic edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control3:27

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 3Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control1:16

Knockdowns0

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 98

Sig Strikes

28 / 59

55.3%

Sig Str %

44%

146 / 196

Total Strikes

72 / 109

4 / 10

TDs

0 / 1

55%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:05

Ctrl Time

1:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darren Elkins	3 / 11	6 / 14	0 / 0	0
1	Mirsad Bektic	39 / 57	102 / 129	1 / 1	0
2	Darren Elkins	13 / 21	44 / 54	0 / 1	0
2	Mirsad Bektic	16 / 22	39 / 48	2 / 5	0
3	Darren Elkins	12 / 27	22 / 41	0 / 0	1
3	Mirsad Bektic	5 / 19	5 / 19	1 / 4	0

Mirsad Bektic

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30