Featherweight

3 Rounds

Mirsad Bektic won · M-DEC R3

Elo1389

Elo1495

Mirsad BekticvsChas SkellyUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · Saturday, April 19, 2014Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Mirsad Bektic won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMirsad Bektic: WrestlervsChas Skelly: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Chas Skelly wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Mirsad Bektic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chas Skelly at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mirsad Bektic enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mirsad Bektic has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mirsad Bektic

Red Corner

Chas Skelly

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1389

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mirsad BekticL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Godofredo Pepey · Jan 18

vs Ricardo Lamas · Jun 18

KOvs Josh Emmett · Jul 19

vs Dan Ige · Feb 20

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Sep 20

latest

Chas SkellyW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Feb 17

KOvs Jason Knight · May 17

vs Bobby Moffett · Nov 18

vs Jordan Griffin · Sep 19

KOvs Mark Striegl · Feb 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mirsad BekticMetricChas Skelly

2.43

Strikes / min

2.01

1.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

57%

Strike defense

49%

3.98

TDs / 15 min

1.74

92%

Takedown defense

39%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

2.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.63Δ 1.83 — meaningful gap-1.20

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mirsad Bektic(10 fights)Chas Skelly(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -106.1|Blue +106.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mirsad BekticTargetChas Skelly

By target zone

29% acc · 93%

Head

20% acc · 89%

40% acc · 7%

Body

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

23% acc · 67%

Distance

14% acc · 53%

50% acc · 7%

Clinch

67% acc · 32%

78% acc · 26%

Ground

100% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mirsad Bektic rounds

even

Chas Skelly rounds

Round 1Mirsad Bektic edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control2:07

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:37

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 3Mirsad Bektic edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control2:12

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 90

Sig Strikes

19 / 85

26.7%

Sig Str %

19.7%

80 / 148

Total Strikes

32 / 101

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 4

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:56

Ctrl Time

1:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chas Skelly	5 / 25	11 / 33	0 / 2
1	Mirsad Bektic	13 / 32	35 / 56	0 / 0
2	Chas Skelly	12 / 44	12 / 44	0 / 2
2	Mirsad Bektic	12 / 41	17 / 47	0 / 2
3	Chas Skelly	2 / 16	9 / 24	0 / 0
3	Mirsad Bektic	2 / 17	28 / 45	2 / 2

Mirsad Bektic

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Chas Skelly

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12