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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Roy Nelson won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1490
Mirko Cro Cop
Elo1491

Mirko Cro CopvsRoy NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · Saturday, October 29, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Roy Nelson won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:30

Model Prediction: Mirko Cro Cop wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Roy Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mirko Cro Cop at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Mirko Cro Cop has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Mirko Cro Cop (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mirko Cro Cop
Red Corner
VS
Roy Nelson
Blue Corner
+190
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
1490
Elo
1491
37
Age
50
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mirko Cro Cop
oldest →
W
SUBvs Pat Barry · Jun 10
L
KOvs Frank Mir · Sep 10
L
KOvs Brendan Schaub · Mar 11
W
KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Apr 15
latest
Roy Nelson
oldest →
L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15
W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16
L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16
W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16
L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mirko Cro CopMetricRoy Nelson
—
Strikes / min
2.18
—
Strikes absorbed / min
4.79
—
Strike defense
46%
—
TDs / 15 min
1.14
—
Takedown defense
65%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1487 vs 1487Strikes20.6 vs 19.5Takedowns0.2 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.33 vs 0.00Form-0.5 vs -0.6
Mirko Cro CopRoy Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Mirko Cro Cop(5 fights)Roy Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +70.0|Blue -70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Mirko Cro Cop

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3

Roy Nelson

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights18