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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Brendan Schaub won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1490
Mirko Cro Cop
Elo1354
Brendan Schaub

Mirko Cro CopvsBrendan SchaubUFC Prediction Result

UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · Saturday, March 19, 2011Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Brendan Schaub won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:44

Model Prediction: Brendan Schaub wins(72.0%)

Actual result: Brendan Schaub wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Schaub at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mirko Cro Cop is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Brendan Schaub has lost 75% of fights by KO.
  • Brendan Schaub is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Mirko Cro Cop has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Mirko Cro Cop (53.5%).
  • Brendan Schaub has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mirko Cro Cop
Red Corner
VS
Brendan Schaub
Blue Corner
+225
(31%)
Vegas Odds
-245
(71%)
1490
Elo
1354
36
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'4"
185.42 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mirko Cro Cop
oldest →
W
SUBvs Pat Barry · Jun 10
L
KOvs Frank Mir · Sep 10
L
KOvs Roy Nelson · Oct 11
W
KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Apr 15
latest
Brendan SchaubL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Ben Rothwell · Apr 12
W
vs Lavar Johnson · Feb 13
W
SUBvs Matt Mitrione · Sep 13
L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 14
L
KOvs Travis Browne · Dec 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mirko Cro CopMetricBrendan Schaub
—
Strikes / min
2.92
—
Strikes absorbed / min
2.22
—
Strike defense
57%
—
TDs / 15 min
2.32
—
Takedown defense
72%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1499 vs 1538Strikes20.5 vs 25.0Takedowns0.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.38 vs 0.00Form-0.1 vs 1.0
Mirko Cro CopBrendan Schaub

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Mirko Cro Cop(5 fights)Brendan Schaub(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +136.4|Blue -136.4
Recent Form
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Mirko Cro Cop

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3

Brendan Schaub

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights10