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Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Amanda Lemos won · SUB R1
Elo1431
Miranda Granger
Elo1488
Amanda Lemos editorial illustration

Miranda GrangervsAmanda LemosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, December 21, 2019Busan, South Korea

Official fight result

Amanda Lemos won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:43

Model Prediction: Miranda Granger wins(56.8%)

Actual result: Amanda Lemos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Miranda Granger at -303 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Miranda Granger has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Amanda Lemos has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Amanda Lemos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Miranda Granger
Red Corner
VS
Amanda Lemos
Blue Corner
-303
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+234
(30%)
1431
Elo
1488
34
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'4"
172.72 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Miranda GrangerL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Hannah Goldy · Aug 19
L
vs Ashley Yoder · Nov 20
L
SUBvs Cory McKenna · Aug 22
latest
Amanda LemosL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Mackenzie Dern · Feb 24
L
SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Jul 24
W
vs Iasmin Lucindo · Mar 25
L
vs Tatiana Suarez · Sep 25
L
vs Gillian Robertson · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Miranda GrangerMetricAmanda Lemos
2.79
Strikes / min
2.75
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
3.01
57%
Strike defense
45%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.02
33%
Takedown defense
63%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.22evenly matched on net striking-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1484Takedowns0.0 vs 1.9Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs -1.0
Miranda GrangerAmanda Lemos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Miranda Granger(4 fights)Amanda Lemos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -57.1|Blue +57.1
Recent Form
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -748.0|Blue +748.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Miranda GrangerTargetAmanda Lemos

By target zone

1
33% acc · 25%
Head
6
67% acc · 75%
0
Body
0
0% acc
3
60% acc · 75%
Leg
2
100% acc · 25%

By position

4
50% acc · 100%
Distance
3
60% acc · 38%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
5
71% acc · 63%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Miranda Granger rounds
0
even
1
Amanda Lemos rounds
Round 1Amanda Lemos edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:06
8Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:20Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
4 / 8
Sig Strikes
8 / 12
50%
Sig Str %
66%
5 / 9
Total Strikes
14 / 18
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:06
Ctrl Time
2:20

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Amanda Lemos8 / 1214 / 181 / 11
1Miranda Granger4 / 85 / 90 / 00

Miranda Granger

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4

Amanda Lemos

StanceSouthpaw
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights15