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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Roy Nelson won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1355
Elo1491

Minotauro NogueiravsRoy NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · Friday, April 11, 2014Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Roy Nelson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:37

Model Prediction: Minotauro Nogueira wins(73.0%)

Actual result: Roy Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Minotauro Nogueira at +150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Minotauro Nogueira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Minotauro Nogueira
Red Corner
VS
Roy Nelson
Blue Corner
+150
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-160
(62%)
1355
Elo
1491
37
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'0"
195.58 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Minotauro NogueiraL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Brendan Schaub · Aug 11
L
SUBvs Frank Mir · Dec 11
W
SUBvs Dave Herman · Oct 12
L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jun 13
L
DECvs Stefan Struve · Aug 15
latest
Roy Nelson
oldest →
L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15
W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16
L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16
W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16
L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Minotauro NogueiraMetricRoy Nelson
—
Strikes / min
2.18
—
Strikes absorbed / min
4.79
—
Strike defense
46%
—
TDs / 15 min
1.14
—
Takedown defense
65%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1502 vs 1503Strikes21.4 vs 18.4Takedowns0.8 vs 0.3Sub Atts1.11 vs 0.09Form-0.3 vs -0.1
Minotauro NogueiraRoy Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Minotauro Nogueira(6 fights)Roy Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -135.7|Blue +135.7
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +133.0|Blue -133.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Minotauro Nogueira

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights4

Roy Nelson

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights18