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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Fabricio Werdum won · Submission R2
Elo1355
Elo1493
Fabricio Werdum

Minotauro NogueiravsFabricio WerdumUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · Saturday, June 8, 2013Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Fabricio Werdum won

Submission · Round 2 · 2:41

Model Prediction: Fabricio Werdum wins(61.9%)

Actual result: Fabricio Werdum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fabricio Werdum at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Minotauro Nogueira is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Fabricio Werdum has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Fabricio Werdum threatens submissions; Minotauro Nogueira has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Minotauro Nogueira
Red Corner
VS
Fabricio Werdum
Blue Corner
+245
(29%)
Vegas Odds
-265
(73%)
1355
Elo
1493
37
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'4"
195.58 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Minotauro NogueiraL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Brendan Schaub · Aug 11
L
SUBvs Frank Mir · Dec 11
W
SUBvs Dave Herman · Oct 12
L
KOvs Roy Nelson · Apr 14
L
DECvs Stefan Struve · Aug 15
latest
Fabricio Werdum
oldest →
W
SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17
W
vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17
L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18
L
vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20
W
SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Minotauro NogueiraMetricFabricio Werdum
—
Strikes / min
3.59
—
Strikes absorbed / min
2.64
—
Strike defense
55%
—
TDs / 15 min
1.75
—
Takedown defense
31%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1515 vs 1528Strikes22.4 vs 35.3Takedowns0.9 vs 0.3Sub Atts1.25 vs 0.00Form0.5 vs 1.0
Minotauro NogueiraFabricio Werdum

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Minotauro Nogueira(6 fights)Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -137.5|Blue +137.5
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -112.0|Blue +112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Minotauro Nogueira

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights4

Fabricio Werdum

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights14