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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Minotauro Nogueira won · Submission R2
Elo1355
Elo1352
Dave Herman

Minotauro NogueiravsDave HermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · Saturday, October 13, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Minotauro Nogueira won

Submission · Round 2 · 4:31

Model Prediction: Minotauro Nogueira wins(56.4%)

Actual result: Minotauro Nogueira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Minotauro Nogueira at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Minotauro Nogueira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Dave Herman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Minotauro Nogueira is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Dave Herman has lost 75% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Minotauro Nogueira
Red Corner
VS
Dave Herman
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
1355
Elo
1352
36
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'4"
195.58 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Minotauro NogueiraL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Brendan Schaub · Aug 11
L
SUBvs Frank Mir · Dec 11
L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jun 13
L
KOvs Roy Nelson · Apr 14
L
DECvs Stefan Struve · Aug 15
latest
Dave HermanL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Jon Olav Einemo · Jun 11
L
KOvs Stefan Struve · Feb 12
L
KOvs Roy Nelson · May 12
L
KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Jul 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Minotauro NogueiraMetricDave Herman
—
Strikes / min
4.98
—
Strikes absorbed / min
3.78
—
Strike defense
48%
—
TDs / 15 min
1.49
—
Takedown defense
58%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1502 vs 1486Strikes22.7 vs 36.3Takedowns0.9 vs 0.3Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.00Form-0.1 vs -0.6
Minotauro NogueiraDave Herman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Minotauro Nogueira(6 fights)Dave Herman(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +2.8|Blue -2.8
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +168.0|Blue -168.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Minotauro Nogueira

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights4

Dave Herman

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights5