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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Minotauro Nogueira won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1355
Elo1354
Brendan Schaub

Minotauro NogueiravsBrendan SchaubUFC Prediction Result

UFC 134: Silva vs Okami · Saturday, August 27, 2011Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Minotauro Nogueira won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:09

Model Prediction: Brendan Schaub wins(59.8%)

Actual result: Minotauro Nogueira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Schaub at -250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Minotauro Nogueira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Minotauro Nogueira is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Brendan Schaub has lost 75% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Minotauro Nogueira
Red Corner
VS
Brendan Schaub
Blue Corner
+230
(30%)
Vegas Odds
-250
(71%)
1355
Elo
1354
35
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'4"
195.58 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Minotauro NogueiraL3 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Frank Mir · Dec 11
W
SUBvs Dave Herman · Oct 12
L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jun 13
L
KOvs Roy Nelson · Apr 14
L
DECvs Stefan Struve · Aug 15
latest
Brendan SchaubL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Ben Rothwell · Apr 12
W
vs Lavar Johnson · Feb 13
W
SUBvs Matt Mitrione · Sep 13
L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 14
L
KOvs Travis Browne · Dec 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Minotauro NogueiraMetricBrendan Schaub
—
Strikes / min
2.92
—
Strikes absorbed / min
2.22
—
Strike defense
57%
—
TDs / 15 min
2.32
—
Takedown defense
72%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1550Strikes24.6 vs 28.0Takedowns1.2 vs 0.8Sub Atts1.20 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 1.0
Minotauro NogueiraBrendan Schaub

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Minotauro Nogueira(6 fights)Brendan Schaub(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red +48.8|Blue -48.8
Grappler Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Minotauro Nogueira

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights4

Brendan Schaub

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights10