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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Mario Bautista won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1479

Elo1554

Miles JohnsvsMario BautistaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · Saturday, February 8, 2020Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Mario Bautista won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:41

Style matchupMiles Johns: Well-roundedvsMario Bautista: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Mario Bautista wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Mario Bautista wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mario Bautista at +112 American odds

+$112 profit

$212 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Miles Johns enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Miles Johns has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Miles Johns has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mario Bautista (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Miles Johns

Red Corner

Mario Bautista

Blue Corner

-132

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+112

(47%)

1479

Elo

1554

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'9"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Miles JohnsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Cody Gibson · Mar 24

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Jun 24

vs Felipe Lima · Dec 24

vs Jean Matsumoto · Aug 25

SUBvs Daniel Marcos · Nov 25

latest

Mario BautistaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24

vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25

SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26

DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Miles JohnsMetricMario Bautista

3.36

Strikes / min

5.30

2.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.98

65%

Strike defense

54%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

1.91

77%

Takedown defense

55%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.37evenly matched on net striking+1.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Miles JohnsMario Bautista

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Miles Johns(10 fights)Mario Bautista(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -74.8|Blue +74.8

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Miles JohnsTargetMario Bautista

By target zone

26% acc · 85%

Head

28% acc · 100%

Body

100% acc · 15%

Leg

0% acc

By position

30% acc · 100%

Distance

16% acc · 50%

Clinch

Ground

90% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Miles Johns rounds

even

Mario Bautista rounds

Round 1Miles Johns edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 44

Sig Strikes

18 / 67

29.5%

Sig Str %

29%

13 / 44

Total Strikes

18 / 67

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mario Bautista	4 / 38	4 / 38	0 / 0
1	Miles Johns	7 / 25	7 / 25	0 / 0
2	Mario Bautista	14 / 29	14 / 29	0 / 0
2	Miles Johns	6 / 19	6 / 19	0 / 0

Miles Johns

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11

Mario Bautista

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15