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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Miles Johns won · KO/TKO

Elo1479

Elo1440

Miles JohnsvsKevin NatividadUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · Saturday, October 31, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Miles Johns won

KO/TKO

Style matchupMiles Johns: Well-roundedvsKevin Natividad: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Miles Johns wins(74.1%)

Actual result: Miles Johns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Miles Johns at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Miles Johns enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Miles Johns has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Miles Johns

Red Corner

Kevin Natividad

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+131

(43%)

1479

Elo

1440

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Miles JohnsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Cody Gibson · Mar 24

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Jun 24

vs Felipe Lima · Dec 24

vs Jean Matsumoto · Aug 25

SUBvs Daniel Marcos · Nov 25

latest

Kevin NatividadL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Danaa Batgerel · Apr 21

vs Ricky Turcios · Nov 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Miles JohnsMetricKevin Natividad

3.36

Strikes / min

2.68

2.99

Strikes absorbed / min

4.29

65%

Strike defense

47%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

3.66

77%

Takedown defense

83%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.37Δ 1.98 — meaningful gap-1.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Miles JohnsKevin Natividad

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Miles Johns(10 fights)Kevin Natividad(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +38.9|Blue -38.9

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Miles JohnsTargetKevin Natividad

By target zone

42% acc · 81%

Head

19% acc · 70%

43% acc · 6%

Body

53% acc · 24%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

67% acc · 6%

By position

46% acc · 96%

Distance

23% acc · 94%

40% acc · 4%

Clinch

40% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Miles Johns rounds

even

Kevin Natividad rounds

Round 1Miles Johns edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:51

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Miles Johns edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:36

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Miles Johns edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:36

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 105

Sig Strikes

33 / 137

45%

Sig Str %

24%

56 / 114

Total Strikes

38 / 142

0 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kevin Natividad	11 / 48	13 / 50	0 / 0
1	Miles Johns	20 / 39	23 / 42	0 / 3
2	Kevin Natividad	12 / 52	15 / 55	0 / 1
2	Miles Johns	14 / 36	19 / 42	0 / 3
3	Kevin Natividad	10 / 37	10 / 37	0 / 0
3	Miles Johns	14 / 30	14 / 30	0 / 1

Miles Johns

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11

Kevin Natividad

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3