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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

John Castaneda won · SUB R3

Elo1479

Elo1495

Miles JohnsvsJohn CastanedaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Saturday, February 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

John Castaneda won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:38

Style matchupMiles Johns: Well-roundedvsJohn Castaneda: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Miles Johns wins(51.2%)

Actual result: John Castaneda wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Miles Johns enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Miles Johns has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors John Castaneda (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Miles Johns

Red Corner

John Castaneda

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1479

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Miles JohnsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Cody Gibson · Mar 24

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Jun 24

vs Felipe Lima · Dec 24

vs Jean Matsumoto · Aug 25

SUBvs Daniel Marcos · Nov 25

latest

John Castaneda

oldest →

vs Muin Gafurov · Jun 23

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 23

vs Daniel Marcos · Jun 24

vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 25

DECvs Mark Vologdin · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Miles JohnsMetricJohn Castaneda

3.36

Strikes / min

4.95

2.99

Strikes absorbed / min

5.07

65%

Strike defense

54%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

1.49

77%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Miles JohnsJohn Castaneda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Miles Johns(10 fights)John Castaneda(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.5|Blue +15.5

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -168.0|Blue +168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Miles JohnsTargetJohn Castaneda

By target zone

36% acc · 79%

Head

35% acc · 69%

75% acc · 18%

Body

55% acc · 10%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

52% acc · 21%

By position

40% acc · 97%

Distance

36% acc · 81%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

64% acc · 12%

Ground

57% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Miles Johns rounds

even

John Castaneda rounds

Round 1John Castaneda edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2John Castaneda edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:12Control

Round 3John Castaneda edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 85

Sig Strikes

58 / 147

40%

Sig Str %

41%

34 / 85

Total Strikes

68 / 159

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	John Castaneda	16 / 48	16 / 48	0 / 0	0
1	Miles Johns	11 / 27	11 / 27	0 / 0	0
2	John Castaneda	25 / 68	33 / 76	0 / 0	0
2	Miles Johns	17 / 44	17 / 44	0 / 1	0
3	John Castaneda	17 / 31	19 / 35	0 / 1	1
3	Miles Johns	6 / 14	6 / 14	0 / 0	0

Miles Johns

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11

John Castaneda

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8