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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jean Matsumoto won · S-DEC R3

Elo1479

Elo1518

Miles JohnsvsJean MatsumotoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Saturday, August 9, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jean Matsumoto won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMiles Johns: Well-roundedvsJean Matsumoto: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jean Matsumoto wins(75.8%)

Actual result: Jean Matsumoto wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jean Matsumoto at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Miles Johns has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Miles Johns has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Miles Johns

Red Corner

Jean Matsumoto

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-260

(72%)

1479

Elo

1518

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Miles JohnsL2 streak

oldest →

vs Vince Morales · Nov 22

vs Cody Gibson · Mar 24

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Jun 24

vs Felipe Lima · Dec 24

SUBvs Daniel Marcos · Nov 25

latest

Jean Matsumoto

oldest →

SUBvs Dan Argueta · Apr 24

vs Brad Katona · Oct 24

vs Rob Font · Feb 25

vs Farid Basharat · Feb 26

DECvs Bekzat Almakhan · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Miles JohnsMetricJean Matsumoto

3.36

Strikes / min

5.37

2.99

Strikes absorbed / min

5.41

65%

Strike defense

47%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

3.00

77%

Takedown defense

56%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Miles JohnsJean Matsumoto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Miles Johns(10 fights)Jean Matsumoto(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -38.6|Blue +38.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Miles JohnsTargetJean Matsumoto

By target zone

41% acc · 84%

Head

31% acc · 52%

92% acc · 14%

Body

71% acc · 28%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

54% acc · 20%

By position

45% acc · 94%

Distance

39% acc · 92%

63% acc · 6%

Clinch

89% acc · 8%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Miles Johns rounds

even

Jean Matsumoto rounds

Round 1Miles Johns edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:42

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns1

Control0:26

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 3Jean Matsumoto edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns3

Control1:04

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 184

Sig Strikes

95 / 233

46%

Sig Str %

39%

89 / 191

Total Strikes

109 / 249

5 / 8

TDs

0 / 3

61%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:12

Ctrl Time

0:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jean Matsumoto	16 / 49	20 / 54	0 / 2	1
1	Miles Johns	22 / 42	23 / 43	1 / 2	0
2	Jean Matsumoto	35 / 84	39 / 89	0 / 0	1
2	Miles Johns	34 / 67	35 / 68	1 / 3	0
3	Jean Matsumoto	44 / 100	50 / 106	0 / 1	0
3	Miles Johns	27 / 75	31 / 80	3 / 3	0

Miles Johns

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11

Jean Matsumoto

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6