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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Felipe Lima won · U-DEC R3

Elo1479

Elo1504

Miles JohnsvsFelipe LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · Saturday, December 14, 2024Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Felipe Lima won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMiles Johns: Well-roundedvsFelipe Lima: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Felipe Lima wins(72.0%)

Actual result: Felipe Lima wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Felipe Lima at -258 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felipe Lima threatens submissions; Miles Johns has lost 40% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Miles Johns

Red Corner

Felipe Lima

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-258

(72%)

1479

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Miles JohnsL2 streak

oldest →

vs Vince Morales · Nov 22

vs Cody Gibson · Mar 24

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Jun 24

vs Jean Matsumoto · Aug 25

SUBvs Daniel Marcos · Nov 25

latest

Felipe Lima

oldest →

SUBvs Muhammad Naimov · Jun 24

vs Payton Talbott · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Miles JohnsMetricFelipe Lima

3.36

Strikes / min

2.86

2.99

Strikes absorbed / min

2.91

65%

Strike defense

64%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

2.18

77%

Takedown defense

85%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Miles JohnsFelipe Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Miles Johns(10 fights)Felipe Lima(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.1|Blue +25.1

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Miles JohnsTargetFelipe Lima

By target zone

17% acc · 68%

Head

38% acc · 78%

71% acc · 16%

Body

70% acc · 13%

63% acc · 16%

Leg

42% acc · 9%

By position

23% acc · 100%

Distance

41% acc · 95%

0% acc

Clinch

60% acc · 5%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Miles Johns rounds

even

Felipe Lima rounds

Round 1Felipe Lima edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:29

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Felipe Lima edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:34

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 3Felipe Lima edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:32

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 137

Sig Strikes

55 / 134

21%

Sig Str %

40.3%

35 / 143

Total Strikes

60 / 140

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 5

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:35

Ctrl Time

2:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Felipe Lima	20 / 48	20 / 48	0 / 1	0
1	Miles Johns	12 / 43	12 / 43	0 / 0	0
2	Felipe Lima	24 / 58	27 / 61	1 / 1	0
2	Miles Johns	15 / 61	18 / 65	0 / 1	0
3	Felipe Lima	11 / 28	13 / 31	1 / 3	1
3	Miles Johns	4 / 33	5 / 35	0 / 0	0

Miles Johns

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11

Felipe Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights3