Featherweight

3 Rounds

Makwan Amirkhani won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1453

Mike WilkinsonvsMakwan AmirkhaniUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · Saturday, February 27, 2016London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Makwan Amirkhani won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Makwan Amirkhani wins(52.2%)

Actual result: Makwan Amirkhani wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Makwan Amirkhani at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Makwan Amirkhani threatens submissions; Mike Wilkinson has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Makwan Amirkhani has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mike Wilkinson has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Makwan Amirkhani (53.5%).
Makwan Amirkhani has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Wilkinson

Red Corner

Makwan Amirkhani

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1490

Elo

1453

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'10"

167.64 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike Wilkinson

oldest →

vs Brendan Loughnane · Dec 12

SUBvs Rony Jason · Jun 13

KOvs Niklas Backstrom · Oct 14

latest

Makwan AmirkhaniL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kamuela Kirk · Jun 21

KOvs Lerone Murphy · Oct 21

SUBvs Mike Grundy · Mar 22

KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Jul 22

SUBvs Jack Shore · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike WilkinsonMetricMakwan Amirkhani

2.35

Strikes / min

1.33

3.70

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

35%

Strike defense

46%

0.92

TDs / 15 min

3.96

55%

Takedown defense

35%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.35evenly matched on net striking-1.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike WilkinsonMakwan Amirkhani

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Wilkinson(4 fights)Makwan Amirkhani(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +37.0|Blue -37.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +259.0|Blue -259.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike WilkinsonTargetMakwan Amirkhani

By target zone

57% acc · 100%

Head

65% acc · 100%

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

17% acc · 8%

Distance

63% acc · 16%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

69% acc · 85%

Ground

64% acc · 84%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Wilkinson rounds

even

Makwan Amirkhani rounds

Round 1Makwan Amirkhani edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:19Control

Round 2Makwan Amirkhani edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:14

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:39Control

Round 3Makwan Amirkhani edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control2:22

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 23

Sig Strikes

32 / 50

57.5%

Sig Str %

64%

70 / 94

Total Strikes

54 / 77

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 7

—

TD %

66.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:36

Ctrl Time

10:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Makwan Amirkhani	12 / 21	22 / 34	1 / 1	0
1	Mike Wilkinson	0 / 0	5 / 5	0 / 0	1
2	Makwan Amirkhani	7 / 11	11 / 17	2 / 3	0
2	Mike Wilkinson	3 / 5	17 / 22	0 / 0	1
3	Makwan Amirkhani	13 / 18	21 / 26	1 / 3	0
3	Mike Wilkinson	10 / 18	48 / 67	0 / 0	0

Mike Wilkinson

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights4

Makwan Amirkhani

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14