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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Matt Brown won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1355

Elo1499

Mike SwickvsMatt BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz · Saturday, December 8, 2012Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Matt Brown won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:31

Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Matt Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Brown at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Brown is a KO finisher (77% of wins). Mike Swick has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Swick

Red Corner

Matt Brown

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1355

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike Swick

oldest →

KOvs DaMarques Johnson · Aug 12

vs Alex Garcia · Jul 15

latest

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike SwickMetricMatt Brown

2.36

Strikes / min

3.76

2.29

Strikes absorbed / min

2.92

54%

Strike defense

55%

1.06

TDs / 15 min

1.68

61%

Takedown defense

63%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike SwickMatt Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Swick(3 fights)Matt Brown(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -143.6|Blue +143.6

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -43.0|Blue +43.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike SwickTargetMatt Brown

By target zone

31% acc · 100%

Head

50% acc · 52%

Body

92% acc · 48%

Leg

By position

20% acc · 56%

Distance

44% acc · 32%

100% acc · 33%

Clinch

79% acc · 60%

100% acc · 11%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Swick rounds

even

Matt Brown rounds

Round 1Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control2:10

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 2Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:50

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 29

Sig Strikes

25 / 39

32%

Sig Str %

61%

19 / 42

Total Strikes

37 / 52

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:00

Ctrl Time

0:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Brown	7 / 14	14 / 21	1 / 1	2
1	Mike Swick	5 / 12	11 / 21	0 / 1	0
2	Matt Brown	18 / 25	23 / 31	0 / 0	0
2	Mike Swick	4 / 17	8 / 21	0 / 1	0

Mike Swick

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights3

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25