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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Mike Swick won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1355

Elo1352

Mike SwickvsDaMarques JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera · Saturday, August 4, 2012Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Mike Swick won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:20

Model Prediction: Mike Swick wins(67.6%)

Actual result: Mike Swick wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Swick at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Swick is a KO finisher (100% of wins). DaMarques Johnson has lost 60% of fights by KO.
DaMarques Johnson is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Mike Swick has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Mike Swick has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Swick

Red Corner

DaMarques Johnson

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1355

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike SwickL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · Dec 12

vs Alex Garcia · Jul 15

latest

DaMarques JohnsonL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Mike Guymon · Jan 11

KOvs Amir Sadollah · Mar 11

KOvs Clay Harvison · Nov 11

SUBvs John Maguire · Apr 12

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Sep 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike SwickMetricDaMarques Johnson

2.36

Strikes / min

2.11

2.29

Strikes absorbed / min

3.75

54%

Strike defense

51%

1.06

TDs / 15 min

1.18

61%

Takedown defense

19%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.07Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap-1.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike SwickDaMarques Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Swick(3 fights)DaMarques Johnson(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.3|Blue -3.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +48.9|Blue -48.9

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike SwickTargetDaMarques Johnson

By target zone

47% acc · 95%

Head

27% acc · 76%

33% acc · 5%

Body

100% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

42% acc · 79%

Distance

20% acc · 47%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 16%

Ground

82% acc · 53%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Swick rounds

even

DaMarques Johnson rounds

Round 1DaMarques Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:10

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:23Control

Round 2Mike Swick edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:03

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 41

Sig Strikes

17 / 53

47%

Sig Str %

26%

27 / 51

Total Strikes

28 / 67

1 / 1

TDs

2 / 2

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

3:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	DaMarques Johnson	15 / 37	26 / 51	2 / 2
1	Mike Swick	12 / 27	20 / 37	0 / 0
2	DaMarques Johnson	2 / 16	2 / 16	0 / 0
2	Mike Swick	7 / 14	7 / 14	1 / 1

Mike Swick

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights3

DaMarques Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8