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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alex Garcia won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1368

Mike SwickvsAlex GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · Saturday, July 11, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Garcia won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alex Garcia wins(77.0%)

Actual result: Alex Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Garcia at -470 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Swick has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Swick

Red Corner

Alex Garcia

Blue Corner

+375

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-470

(82%)

1355

Elo

1368

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'9"

195.58 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike Swick

oldest →

KOvs DaMarques Johnson · Aug 12

KOvs Matt Brown · Dec 12

latest

Alex GarciaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mike Pyle · Dec 16

vs Tim Means · Jun 17

SUBvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 17

vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 18

vs Court McGee · Oct 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike SwickMetricAlex Garcia

2.36

Strikes / min

1.81

2.29

Strikes absorbed / min

3.03

54%

Strike defense

59%

1.06

TDs / 15 min

3.72

61%

Takedown defense

66%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.07Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap-1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike SwickAlex Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Swick(3 fights)Alex Garcia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.4|Blue +13.4

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +623.0|Blue -623.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike SwickTargetAlex Garcia

By target zone

16% acc · 74%

Head

23% acc · 92%

57% acc · 21%

Body

40% acc · 8%

50% acc · 5%

Leg

By position

20% acc · 95%

Distance

19% acc · 71%

33% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

Ground

50% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Swick rounds

even

Alex Garcia rounds

Round 1Alex Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:03

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:57Control

Round 2Alex Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:45Control

Round 3Alex Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:05

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 94

Sig Strikes

24 / 102

19.7%

Sig Str %

23%

45 / 124

Total Strikes

55 / 136

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 5

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

6:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alex Garcia	8 / 36	16 / 45	2 / 2
1	Mike Swick	6 / 28	9 / 31	0 / 0
2	Alex Garcia	10 / 34	18 / 42	2 / 2
2	Mike Swick	8 / 36	21 / 51	0 / 0
3	Alex Garcia	6 / 32	21 / 49	1 / 1
3	Mike Swick	5 / 30	15 / 42	0 / 0

Mike Swick

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights3

Alex Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10