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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Pascal Krauss won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1490

Mike StumpfvsPascal KraussUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · Saturday, January 26, 2013Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Pascal Krauss won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Pascal Krauss wins(73.8%)

Actual result: Pascal Krauss wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pascal Krauss at -275 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Pascal Krauss has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Pascal Krauss has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Stumpf

Red Corner

Pascal Krauss

Blue Corner

+250

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-275

(73%)

1352

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'1"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike Stumpf

oldest →

SUBvs TJ Waldburger · Sep 11

latest

Pascal KraussL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mark Scanlon · Nov 10

vs John Hathaway · May 12

KOvs Hyun Gyu Lim · Aug 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike StumpfMetricPascal Krauss

3.34

Strikes / min

5.45

8.85

Strikes absorbed / min

3.88

47%

Strike defense

59%

1.59

TDs / 15 min

1.53

33%

Takedown defense

60%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-5.51Δ 7.08 — meaningful gap+1.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike StumpfPascal Krauss

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Stumpf(2 fights)Pascal Krauss(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -138.4|Blue +138.4

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +231.0|Blue -231.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike StumpfTargetPascal Krauss

By target zone

27% acc · 41%

Head

115

45% acc · 71%

62% acc · 25%

Body

73% acc · 12%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

42% acc · 81%

Distance

116

48% acc · 71%

63% acc · 19%

Clinch

69% acc · 27%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Stumpf rounds

even

Pascal Krauss rounds

Round 1Pascal Krauss edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:08

46Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 2Pascal Krauss edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:09

58Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:49Control

Round 3Pascal Krauss edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:12

59Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 142

Sig Strikes

163 / 309

44%

Sig Str %

52.7%

87 / 169

Total Strikes

197 / 344

2 / 8

TDs

1 / 2

27.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:29

Ctrl Time

3:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Pascal Krauss	46 / 102	53 / 109	0 / 1	1
1	Mike Stumpf	22 / 48	27 / 55	1 / 3	0
2	Pascal Krauss	58 / 98	67 / 107	1 / 1	0
2	Mike Stumpf	22 / 50	34 / 63	1 / 2	0
3	Pascal Krauss	59 / 109	77 / 128	0 / 0	0
3	Mike Stumpf	19 / 44	26 / 51	0 / 3	0

Mike Stumpf

Stance—

Height70.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Pascal Krauss

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach—

Fights4