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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tafon Nchukwi won · U-DEC R3

Elo1408

Elo1470

Mike RodriguezvsTafon NchukwiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Saturday, September 18, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tafon Nchukwi won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMike Rodriguez: Pressure fightervsTafon Nchukwi: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Tafon Nchukwi wins(71.8%)

Actual result: Tafon Nchukwi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tafon Nchukwi at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tafon Nchukwi enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Mike Rodriguez is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Tafon Nchukwi has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Tafon Nchukwi has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tafon Nchukwi has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mike Rodriguez (53.5%).
Mike Rodriguez has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Rodriguez

Red Corner

Tafon Nchukwi

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1408

Elo

1470

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'0"

208.28 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike RodriguezL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Adam Milstead · Dec 18

KOvs Da Un Jung · Dec 19

KOvs Marcin Prachnio · Aug 20

SUBvs Ed Herman · Sep 20

SUBvs Danilo Marques · Feb 21

latest

Tafon NchukwiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jamie Pickett · Dec 20

vs Junyong Park · May 21

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Mar 22

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Jun 22

vs AJ Dobson · Aug 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike RodriguezMetricTafon Nchukwi

4.35

Strikes / min

5.57

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

41%

Strike defense

54%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.76

37%

Takedown defense

64%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.11Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap+1.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike RodriguezTafon Nchukwi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Rodriguez(7 fights)Tafon Nchukwi(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -62.3|Blue +62.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike RodriguezTargetTafon Nchukwi

By target zone

18% acc · 39%

Head

56% acc · 70%

77% acc · 35%

Body

57% acc · 22%

76% acc · 27%

Leg

91% acc · 9%

By position

33% acc · 92%

Distance

52% acc · 66%

57% acc · 8%

Clinch

74% acc · 27%

Ground

82% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Rodriguez rounds

even

Tafon Nchukwi rounds

Round 1Tafon Nchukwi edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:49Control

Round 2Tafon Nchukwi edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:56Control

Round 3Tafon Nchukwi edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:02

42Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 144

Sig Strikes

116 / 199

34.7%

Sig Str %

58%

59 / 156

Total Strikes

145 / 240

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 3

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

4:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tafon Nchukwi	38 / 60	44 / 68	2 / 2
1	Mike Rodriguez	17 / 38	22 / 44	0 / 0
2	Tafon Nchukwi	36 / 67	49 / 82	0 / 0
2	Mike Rodriguez	15 / 46	15 / 46	0 / 0
3	Tafon Nchukwi	42 / 72	52 / 90	1 / 1
3	Mike Rodriguez	17 / 60	22 / 66	0 / 0

Mike Rodriguez

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights7

Tafon Nchukwi

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6